There are a couple of things you're not considering. First, the patent-holder could easily (and almost certainly will within the next few years) be Google/Samsung/HTC/... in which case they're not going to let Apple "simply license the tech". Second, if a patent holder gets traction in an attack on Apple, what is their most lucrative option? Hint: It isn't letting Apple negotiate a license.
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There are a couple of things you're not considering. First, the patent-holder could easily (and almost certainly will within the next few years) be Google/Samsung/HTC/... in which case they're not going to let Apple "simply license the tech". Second, if a patent holder gets traction in an attack on Apple, what is their most lucrative option? Hint: It isn't letting Apple negotiate a license.