That’s just a heterogeneous population with selection bias. Everyone is always convinced because when they’re disproven they stay silent. These days prediction markets allow people to convert beliefs to money so it becomes not very convincing when everyone manages to be perfect at predicting things and is always complaining they aren’t making enough money while simultaneously giving up the chance at doubling their bet on a sure shot.

Combine that with people upgrading uncertainty to certainty post-hoc when debunking comes out and you have these entertaining things. Overall, I’m glad you called it out. Once I wished I had a profile for people’s past guesses to see how actually good they are and now I have Manifold, Kalshi, and Polymarket.