Skip to content

Comment on How I Predicted Pebble Backers with 98% Accuracyparent

Comments

Good point. I helped run the contest, and want add a bit more background.

Robert's answer was in many ways an educated guess. He took some of the numbers, looked at other projects and put it together to get a good guess.

However his motivation for making a guess was spot on. We got a lot of answers that were more thorough. But just as Robert conjectured, these were all relatively similar, and all under predicted the true number of backers.

Robert's prediction was the highest prediction that we got, mostly because he was able to correctly guess that there would be another wave of supporters before the backing period ended.

AboutSource Built by g1lg1l

Hackerly is an independent reader for Hacker News, built on the public HN API. Not affiliated with Y Combinator.