3) There's a massive offshoring push right now. Bigger than I've seen since the early 2000s. Lots of organizations are making it basically impossible to open a req in a western office while also actively moving roles offshore.

This is it, basically. COVID showed the world that a whole lotta things could be remote. Industries that might have balked at the idea 5 years ago are now onboard.

Automation and AI aren't helping, but that's a drop in the bucket compared to 120k new CS grads a year -- on top of outsourcing.