The issue is actually with investors not investing and not with the companies not innovating. A lot of promising technology simply doesn't get funded. So it gets stuck in the R&D pipeline. Without funding, companies are struggling to get enough cash and have to limit their ambition level.
For example by just working with a handful of customers. Or by building a tiny factory that merely prove technical feasibility instead of a bigger one that would prove the business case as well as the technology benefits in terms of cost. Big battery factories are expensive and risky. And most battery tech doesn't really get profitable until you have a big factory and a few years of optimization. The price of the first batteries is generally really high and it can take years to get there.
This has been a problem with battery tech in particular where mostly companies in the US or Europe don't get much funding for new tech and where China actually seems to be doing a bit better. Which is why sodium batteries are shipping in China (CATL) and sort of stuck in R&D for many years elsewhere.
With flow batteries, the technology is kind of proven at this point. They work, they exist, etc. What's left to prove is the price point: can it be done cheaply? Everything seems to suggest yes. But proving that is going to require scaling production and a massive amount of investment to get that going. Think billions, not millions.
Small retail customers are not helpful here because those don't pay until after the factory gets built and starts shipping product. Demand is never the issue. It's doing the leg work to get to the promised price point at which that demand exists. That requires investment.
Comments
The issue is actually with investors not investing and not with the companies not innovating. A lot of promising technology simply doesn't get funded. So it gets stuck in the R&D pipeline. Without funding, companies are struggling to get enough cash and have to limit their ambition level.
For example by just working with a handful of customers. Or by building a tiny factory that merely prove technical feasibility instead of a bigger one that would prove the business case as well as the technology benefits in terms of cost. Big battery factories are expensive and risky. And most battery tech doesn't really get profitable until you have a big factory and a few years of optimization. The price of the first batteries is generally really high and it can take years to get there.
This has been a problem with battery tech in particular where mostly companies in the US or Europe don't get much funding for new tech and where China actually seems to be doing a bit better. Which is why sodium batteries are shipping in China (CATL) and sort of stuck in R&D for many years elsewhere.
With flow batteries, the technology is kind of proven at this point. They work, they exist, etc. What's left to prove is the price point: can it be done cheaply? Everything seems to suggest yes. But proving that is going to require scaling production and a massive amount of investment to get that going. Think billions, not millions.
Small retail customers are not helpful here because those don't pay until after the factory gets built and starts shipping product. Demand is never the issue. It's doing the leg work to get to the promised price point at which that demand exists. That requires investment.