By that time he'd already created the foundations for game theory with his minimax theorem of zero-sum games. I think its more likely that he knew was he was doing and expected to lose the money.
Old roulette wheels had large flaws, even in the 1960s: https://thehustle.co/professor-who-beat-roulette. 30 years earlier they must have been worse. So there is a chance he noticed some anomaly that he tried to exploit.
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It is a fun story but it does not have to be true.
I think von Neumann would understand some basic probability already by then.
Or maybe not? But at least there is a non-zero probability that it did not happen like that.
By that time he'd already created the foundations for game theory with his minimax theorem of zero-sum games. I think its more likely that he knew was he was doing and expected to lose the money.
Old roulette wheels had large flaws, even in the 1960s: https://thehustle.co/professor-who-beat-roulette. 30 years earlier they must have been worse. So there is a chance he noticed some anomaly that he tried to exploit.
That article was a good read. That is a possibility.
Sure, he would have known probability, but apparently he knew how to make up a good story to charm someone.
Sounds like his losses were a good investment.