The UN has done nothing but downward revisions in the last 10+ years. They consistently overestimate birth rates and underestimate how quickly they are falling especially in the developing countries. This itself is a trend that says the UN is overly optimistic here in terms of population growth and max/max year. The 2019 to 2022 revision went from population max of 10.88B in 2100 to 10.4B in 2086. I didn't find the 2024 data yet but would expect another "our numbers were too high" again.
The very latest 2024 update (not yet on their website) is apparently a small increase, because they expect a slower rate of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa.
I've been wondering but didn't come up with anything. I don't think the world economy as a whole is ready for a decline. For countries like the US or for example Australia, I think population will not decline due to net immigration, even as the world as whole declines. For the rest though, it cannot be good for an economy.
Comments
The UN has done nothing but downward revisions in the last 10+ years. They consistently overestimate birth rates and underestimate how quickly they are falling especially in the developing countries. This itself is a trend that says the UN is overly optimistic here in terms of population growth and max/max year. The 2019 to 2022 revision went from population max of 10.88B in 2100 to 10.4B in 2086. I didn't find the 2024 data yet but would expect another "our numbers were too high" again.
The very latest 2024 update (not yet on their website) is apparently a small increase, because they expect a slower rate of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa.
(I think I read about this on the IIASA website.)
Time will tell.
Who benefits?
I've been wondering but didn't come up with anything. I don't think the world economy as a whole is ready for a decline. For countries like the US or for example Australia, I think population will not decline due to net immigration, even as the world as whole declines. For the rest though, it cannot be good for an economy.