Japan's population has been declining for ~15 years. It's hard to disentangle from the aftermath of their bubble collapse in 1991, but it does appear that while demographic collapse isn't great for an economy, it's also not the doomsday that many predict.
In demographics the units of time are generations. It takes several of them for the effects of shock to be fully felt because generations overlap, about a century.
Japan's TFR fell below replacement around 1973, iirc. So we should wait at least till 2070 before making assertions about the severity or otherwise of the issue. In the mean time, it sure looks serious.
Japan has been propping up its economy with debt. It has the highest public debt to GDP ratio in the world. Is that sustainable if interest rates climb? I don't know.
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Japan's population has been declining for ~15 years. It's hard to disentangle from the aftermath of their bubble collapse in 1991, but it does appear that while demographic collapse isn't great for an economy, it's also not the doomsday that many predict.
In demographics the units of time are generations. It takes several of them for the effects of shock to be fully felt because generations overlap, about a century.
Japan's TFR fell below replacement around 1973, iirc. So we should wait at least till 2070 before making assertions about the severity or otherwise of the issue. In the mean time, it sure looks serious.
Japan has been propping up its economy with debt. It has the highest public debt to GDP ratio in the world. Is that sustainable if interest rates climb? I don't know.
Do you think it's different when global growth declines, or when there's a large group of countries going throughs population stagnation or decline?
One can say that Japan's economy was still buoyed by global population growth, export growth, etc.
It’s not the first derivative that is usually a problem, it’s the second derivative.
The rate of decline is important to monitor for the purposes of managing expectations of supply and demand in the markets.
It’s also a decent indicator whether the economy is working well for the people. I think too often the tail wags the dog.