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Comment on Show HN: Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toeparent

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Usually those are for additive/linear systems, the problem with game theoretic graphs like these is that you alternate between max and min nodes, so the system is highly nonlinear.

You're right.

I'll work on the simpler problem of :) / :( first. I think that can be done with just minimax

And then maybe win chance for each possible state of a purely random game

If it were just solely :) / :( then it is a freshman's exercise in expectiminimax.

it turns out you don't need anything more than minimax for the general case Here's my solution https://github.com/pvillano/probabalistic-tic-tac-toe

I think this fails to take into account that your opponent can also roll 'meh', making it your turn again.

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