Let's assume that Tesla is going all in on Robo taxies (I think a reasonable move given their core automotive business is not sound from a shareholder perspective). Then the problem they're facing is less technological than regulatory. If you were to assume that their self-driving is perfect, which it's not, they're meaningfully behind Waymo in an important way. Waymo have put the work in to establish themselves with regulators, gone slow in the roll out, responded to pressure and criticism and built trust. Musk seems to imagine that he can just put a 2 tonne death trap on the street and go "Tada!" and people will just accept it. They won't.
The core problem is they'll need to go through years of hurdles to get regulatory approval, building up through the same steps that Waymo are going through. It's not a technological problem, it's a regulatory and political problem.
Waymos advantage is also cooperating as a means to help shape the regulations that competitors will later have to meet.
From a public acceptance view, I think after the first wave gets deployed by any company the companies that come after it will have significantly more leeway and the public will more easily accept them.
That might be true, but it also destroys the economics. A massive factor in this is that to justify the valuation of Tesla you need to beleive not just that Tesla are going to solve self-driving (again) but they're going to do so and have a monopoly for some period of time. If Waymo really do solve it and roll out at scale, then all that Tesla is going to offer from an economic point of view is a race to the bottom. They'll entirely lose pricing power, which defeats the purpose of the pivot in the first place.
Waymo’s advantage is also that it is actually operating a robotaxi service, which isn't just making self-driving cars or having regulations in place, while Tesla is not.
Sometimes it is the second mover in a market that wins for this very reason.
For example, say Waymo does all of the hard work of establishing regulations and making all the big mistakes. Tesla then comes in later and is able to benefit from Waymo's public lessons. Because Tesla can set a direction more clearly, they might leapfrog Waymo.
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Let's assume that Tesla is going all in on Robo taxies (I think a reasonable move given their core automotive business is not sound from a shareholder perspective). Then the problem they're facing is less technological than regulatory. If you were to assume that their self-driving is perfect, which it's not, they're meaningfully behind Waymo in an important way. Waymo have put the work in to establish themselves with regulators, gone slow in the roll out, responded to pressure and criticism and built trust. Musk seems to imagine that he can just put a 2 tonne death trap on the street and go "Tada!" and people will just accept it. They won't.
The core problem is they'll need to go through years of hurdles to get regulatory approval, building up through the same steps that Waymo are going through. It's not a technological problem, it's a regulatory and political problem.
Waymos advantage is also cooperating as a means to help shape the regulations that competitors will later have to meet.
From a public acceptance view, I think after the first wave gets deployed by any company the companies that come after it will have significantly more leeway and the public will more easily accept them.
That might be true, but it also destroys the economics. A massive factor in this is that to justify the valuation of Tesla you need to beleive not just that Tesla are going to solve self-driving (again) but they're going to do so and have a monopoly for some period of time. If Waymo really do solve it and roll out at scale, then all that Tesla is going to offer from an economic point of view is a race to the bottom. They'll entirely lose pricing power, which defeats the purpose of the pivot in the first place.
Waymo’s advantage is also that it is actually operating a robotaxi service, which isn't just making self-driving cars or having regulations in place, while Tesla is not.
Sometimes it is the second mover in a market that wins for this very reason.
For example, say Waymo does all of the hard work of establishing regulations and making all the big mistakes. Tesla then comes in later and is able to benefit from Waymo's public lessons. Because Tesla can set a direction more clearly, they might leapfrog Waymo.
Is this not really only relevant to the US though and where Waymo are operating?
Here in the UK, they recently passed this law, which could allow self driving cars from 2026 - https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/22/uk_law_gives_green_li...