This timing is responsive to public opinion, and in fact is still even risky for Biden. The problem is that while marijuana legalization carries a modest majority, that’s split between the parties. As of 2024, over a quarter of Democrats still oppose legalizing marijuana for recreational use: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/03/26/most-america....
That makes any national movement on marijuana risky for Biden. Biden cannot win reelection without winning a super majority of Hispanics, the majority of whom oppose recreational marijuana. Maybe Biden figures he’s cooked in Arizona and Nevada anyway, and this is his play for cross-pressured voters in whiter than average states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where abortion has been flipping many Obama-Trump voters back lately.
But zooming out, this phenomenon will exist in any representative democracy with political parties. A policy with 57% support that carries an overwhelming majority of one party has a much better chance than a policy with 57% split between the parties.
less than half of Hispanics support legalizing marijuana for recreational use. Hispanics (and Asians) support recreational marijuana legalization at only marginally higher rates than Republicans.
Quite possibly, but is there any sort of cross sectioning that to religious beliefs and/or existing political affiliations in the data set?
I say it that way because, the more devout Catholics may very well support abortion bans and keeping Marijuana completely illegal...
But let's remember the reality of this change; it is NOT legalization, it is simply moved to schedule 3 federally.
IMHO, if the population who decides that is 'past the line' or gets fooled to think it is full legalization gets in a tizzy and everything goes its up again...
Idk what to say at that point.
I agree there is risk but the bigger risk is long term blowback if it becomes a big pharma cash grab.
Quite possibly, but is there any sort of cross sectioning that to religious beliefs and/or existing political affiliations in the data set?
Biden won over 60% of Hispanics in 2020. Even if every one of the 45% who support recreational marijuana voted for him in 2020, he has to win over a quarter of those who oppose that policy.
Regardless, my main point is that it’s misleading to assert that this change was somehow delayed despite “overwhelming public support.” Even today this is not a risk-free move for Biden. That’s not a fault of the governmental system, that’s just how coalition politics works. Even at age 40, I wouldn’t confess to ever having tried marijuana (I tried an edible once in DC where it’s legal) to anyone in my family. But they’re the same immigrants who flipped Virginia blue.
Biden won over 60% of Hispanics in 2020. Even if every one of the 45% who support recreational marijuana voted for him in 2020, he has to win over a quarter of those who oppose that policy.
Per my comment however, Schedule 3 is nowhere near 'go into a store and buy it' federally speaking. If people see this as full decrim/rec they are in for what may be an extremely rude awakening (best worst scenario, everything is in state only, worst worst scenario, pharma strong arms in.)
Comments
This timing is responsive to public opinion, and in fact is still even risky for Biden. The problem is that while marijuana legalization carries a modest majority, that’s split between the parties. As of 2024, over a quarter of Democrats still oppose legalizing marijuana for recreational use: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/03/26/most-america....
That makes any national movement on marijuana risky for Biden. Biden cannot win reelection without winning a super majority of Hispanics, the majority of whom oppose recreational marijuana. Maybe Biden figures he’s cooked in Arizona and Nevada anyway, and this is his play for cross-pressured voters in whiter than average states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where abortion has been flipping many Obama-Trump voters back lately.
But zooming out, this phenomenon will exist in any representative democracy with political parties. A policy with 57% support that carries an overwhelming majority of one party has a much better chance than a policy with 57% split between the parties.
Quite possibly, but is there any sort of cross sectioning that to religious beliefs and/or existing political affiliations in the data set?
I say it that way because, the more devout Catholics may very well support abortion bans and keeping Marijuana completely illegal...
But let's remember the reality of this change; it is NOT legalization, it is simply moved to schedule 3 federally.
IMHO, if the population who decides that is 'past the line' or gets fooled to think it is full legalization gets in a tizzy and everything goes its up again...
Idk what to say at that point.
I agree there is risk but the bigger risk is long term blowback if it becomes a big pharma cash grab.
Biden won over 60% of Hispanics in 2020. Even if every one of the 45% who support recreational marijuana voted for him in 2020, he has to win over a quarter of those who oppose that policy.
Regardless, my main point is that it’s misleading to assert that this change was somehow delayed despite “overwhelming public support.” Even today this is not a risk-free move for Biden. That’s not a fault of the governmental system, that’s just how coalition politics works. Even at age 40, I wouldn’t confess to ever having tried marijuana (I tried an edible once in DC where it’s legal) to anyone in my family. But they’re the same immigrants who flipped Virginia blue.
Per my comment however, Schedule 3 is nowhere near 'go into a store and buy it' federally speaking. If people see this as full decrim/rec they are in for what may be an extremely rude awakening (best worst scenario, everything is in state only, worst worst scenario, pharma strong arms in.)