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Comment on The danger of the mediocre success when testing startup hypotheses (2023)parent

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Average results for cold calling are a 4.8% success rate, meaning with 2000 cold calls you'd expect less than 100 hits for a good campaign. This in turn is highly variable with field, a 1% success rate might be high, especially for a product with no pre-existing market presence. And it's not enough to see whether you're above a certain number, you need to know the variance to predict future performance. Maybe the magic number is 1500 or something, the number will no doubt vary based on the peculiarities of the experiment, including the product and the company, but to see a signal with 2 standard deviations of significance, you need a sample size that you would expect to produce about 20 times the expected noise level.

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