More likely based on your priors. But not "more likely" based on any reasonable or scientific metric. Like, do you have any evidence against this guy's copious evidence? It's ridiculous and totally not science to say, "He's wrong, because reasons". Your reason, I think, is you hope -- like you said. That's okay.

But too much of what is hoped negatively by people somehow gets converted (at 100% efficiency no less!) into "absolute scientific truth" or in your case very high probability :) hahah