Does this surprise anyone with a modicum of intelligence?
In the past 40 years we went from:
1. PCs (real productivity gain) as now all every home and office could afford a computer running important things like spreadsheets and word processors.
To
2. The world wide web. Huge economic and productivity gain from making information acquisition and communication cheaper and more readily available. The apogee of the world wide web was probably in the early 2000s. Google search worked. You could find what you were looking for. eBay and Amazon worked.
To accelerating bullshit based on advertising.
3. Facebook, Google SEO spam, Twitter Reddit. Increasing programing frameworks all of negligibly marginal productivity and economic value.
4. Crypto currency. For some governments world wide turned a blind eye to the creation of private tokens whose only real use cases are speculation (gambling, distributed ponzi), money laundering and or other black and grey market activities of negligible or negative real economic value.
To now
5. "AI" trained on Reddit posts, Wiki articles, stack posts, and Google SEO blog spam. "AI" is basically a glorified, hallucinating chat bot at this stage. Nothing like real intelligence or capable of producing trustworthy reliable output at par with a human expert or a Google search from 20 years ago, before the degradation.
The sigmoid curve strikes again.
Silicon Valley in bringing the world microprocessors, PCs, the commerical WWW. Since then the ratio of bullshit to real innovation has increased at an accelerating rate. Eventually there will be a profound economic.restructuring of the area more in line with reality.
The only reason why it hasn't happened yet since 2009 to present when bullshit proliferated was low interest rates and too much money chasing gains with delusional business propositions.
I don't think anyone is questioning the impact and future of ML/AI products and services.
But as things are right now, the only AI companies with any serious impact are the very companies that train and release the huge and extremely expensive models.
Everyone else seem to be layers on top of those products.
I'm getting immediate flashbacks to the era of "Google killed my startup/product", where google could simply either acquire companies, or implement their own solutions which essentially killed small competition.
Comments
Does this surprise anyone with a modicum of intelligence?
In the past 40 years we went from:
1. PCs (real productivity gain) as now all every home and office could afford a computer running important things like spreadsheets and word processors.
To
2. The world wide web. Huge economic and productivity gain from making information acquisition and communication cheaper and more readily available. The apogee of the world wide web was probably in the early 2000s. Google search worked. You could find what you were looking for. eBay and Amazon worked.
To accelerating bullshit based on advertising.
3. Facebook, Google SEO spam, Twitter Reddit. Increasing programing frameworks all of negligibly marginal productivity and economic value.
4. Crypto currency. For some governments world wide turned a blind eye to the creation of private tokens whose only real use cases are speculation (gambling, distributed ponzi), money laundering and or other black and grey market activities of negligible or negative real economic value.
To now 5. "AI" trained on Reddit posts, Wiki articles, stack posts, and Google SEO blog spam. "AI" is basically a glorified, hallucinating chat bot at this stage. Nothing like real intelligence or capable of producing trustworthy reliable output at par with a human expert or a Google search from 20 years ago, before the degradation.
The sigmoid curve strikes again.
Silicon Valley in bringing the world microprocessors, PCs, the commerical WWW. Since then the ratio of bullshit to real innovation has increased at an accelerating rate. Eventually there will be a profound economic.restructuring of the area more in line with reality.
The only reason why it hasn't happened yet since 2009 to present when bullshit proliferated was low interest rates and too much money chasing gains with delusional business propositions.
I don't think anyone is questioning the impact and future of ML/AI products and services.
But as things are right now, the only AI companies with any serious impact are the very companies that train and release the huge and extremely expensive models.
Everyone else seem to be layers on top of those products.
I'm getting immediate flashbacks to the era of "Google killed my startup/product", where google could simply either acquire companies, or implement their own solutions which essentially killed small competition.