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why would it ever make sense for Putin to invade Poland ?

It wouldn’t make sense (Russia can barely afford its current war, never mind invading Poland), but guy sure is obsessed with Poland. In particular, see his recent deranged ‘interview’, in which he claimed, amongst other things, that Poland forced Hitler to invade it (this is particularly ominous in that Russian propagandists often claim that Ukraine in some manner forced Russia to invade it).

He only invaded Ukraine because the US left him with no other option.

… Eh? What bad thing would have happened to Russia, had Putin not decided to attempt an invasion?

What bad thing would have happened to Russia, had Putin not decided to attempt an invasion?

Ukraine would've joined NATO. [1]

There was no reason for the US to contemplate, if not to pursue, Ukraine to be joining NATO.

Could you consider the collective panic and US reaction if a bordering state were to join the CSTO for example ?

Coups have been performed in countries much farther for much less. [2]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r...

Ukraine would've joined NATO.

That's just speculation. Germany has vetoed Ukraine's accession in 2008 and their position was not changed until this war. Same for France.

Could you consider the collective panic and US reaction if a bordering state were to join the CSTO for example ?

I think US is wise enough to not annex parts of its neighbors to provoke such a reaction.

Ukraine would've joined NATO. [1]

… So what? Latvia and Estonia have been in NATO for ages.

Could you consider the collective panic and US reaction if a bordering state were to join the CSTO for example ?

Would Poland, by the same token, be justified in invading Belarus?

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