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Comment on IOS app success is a lottery: 60% (or more) of developers don't break evenparent

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These are actually very good odds

"risk" is actually probability x payoff (for one event like a bet on throwing a dice) If it's bigger than 1, congratulations.

In this case you would have something like Integral(payoff x probability,dprobability,0,1) (sorry about this syntax)

For a real probability distribution, this means you have a 40% chance of breaking-off or do better

The second issue is that your risk is (very) limited. It's cost of equipment + dev licence + cost of your time + 3rd parties

It's not like the risk of cutting the wrong wire in a bomb about to go off.

Most of the risk, I assure from experience, is not getting to the store in the first place. That is, not finishing the product, or coming up with something bad

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