If you want to do such a random approach then do buy a bit off all because then you‘re upside goes toward infinite while downside is at most 100%. If you short, your downside goes toward infinite. Plus the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
I don't think people mean literal short positions. The safest way to do this would be to buy long-dated PUTs, and roll them if necessary. Not that that's free -- which goes to your "irrational longer than you can stay solvent" point.
Comments
If you want to do such a random approach then do buy a bit off all because then you‘re upside goes toward infinite while downside is at most 100%. If you short, your downside goes toward infinite. Plus the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
I don't think people mean literal short positions. The safest way to do this would be to buy long-dated PUTs, and roll them if necessary. Not that that's free -- which goes to your "irrational longer than you can stay solvent" point.