I've calculated the ratings-to-sales ratio on products that do have official sales numbers, and used that to estimate it for the ones that don't.
I used the median ratio as a guide.
It's hard to tell how accurate the estimates are until some Gumroad seller confirm their numbers to me, but I think with the data I have this is a good guideline.
One surprising thing I found is that the median ratio is the same across all categories, I thought it would vary much more between different niches.
That seems incredibly unreliable. Justin Bieber videos can have ratings in the dirt and billions of views. I can imagine that the are plenty of esoteric items on gumroad which solve something super specific really well for a small audience, or vice versa.
Sorry I was a bit unclear on my previous message. By ratings I mean number of reviews. So I'm not using the average star rating at all, just the pure reviews count.
Comments
How are you estimating sales? Or how accurate is it?
I've calculated the ratings-to-sales ratio on products that do have official sales numbers, and used that to estimate it for the ones that don't. I used the median ratio as a guide.
It's hard to tell how accurate the estimates are until some Gumroad seller confirm their numbers to me, but I think with the data I have this is a good guideline.
One surprising thing I found is that the median ratio is the same across all categories, I thought it would vary much more between different niches.
That seems incredibly unreliable. Justin Bieber videos can have ratings in the dirt and billions of views. I can imagine that the are plenty of esoteric items on gumroad which solve something super specific really well for a small audience, or vice versa.
Sorry I was a bit unclear on my previous message. By ratings I mean number of reviews. So I'm not using the average star rating at all, just the pure reviews count.
Got it. That makes much more sense.
I have a Gumroad product and would be curious what you estimated for my sales vs the actual sales. Email in bio if you want to talk :-)
Off-topic, but are you Cenk who used to work for Elektron?
No
Sure! I’ll email you :)
Did you try to cross-validate your approach?
Not yet, if I see enough interest in my product I’ll work hard to improve the estimates.