Comment on What can you do with money?parentComments−amichail19yIf they can achieve 100 suborbital flights without an accident, would you go then?−someOP19yNo, because having done something 100 times without failure is not a proof of a low failure-rate.Say your failure rate is 1%. Then the chance that you get away without failure in 100 tries is 37%. (0.99^100).−amichail19yIf your failure rate is 5%, then the chance that you get away without failure in 100 tries is 5.9%.−someOP19y0.59%−amichail19ySo what sort of failure rate are you looking for? Everyone wants to go into space, no?−randallsquared19yWell, some of us want to emigrate to space, but taking a several hour ride and coming right back isn't nearly so interesting. :)−someOP19yNot sure if I want to.−Tichy19yWhy?
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If they can achieve 100 suborbital flights without an accident, would you go then?
No, because having done something 100 times without failure is not a proof of a low failure-rate.
Say your failure rate is 1%. Then the chance that you get away without failure in 100 tries is 37%. (0.99^100).
If your failure rate is 5%, then the chance that you get away without failure in 100 tries is 5.9%.
0.59%
So what sort of failure rate are you looking for? Everyone wants to go into space, no?
Well, some of us want to emigrate to space, but taking a several hour ride and coming right back isn't nearly so interesting. :)
Not sure if I want to.
Why?