You seem to assume that creditors are a bunch of morons?
Any inflation that's anticipated at the time a debt contract is made will be priced in to the debt contract. That's (part of) why high inflation economies have high interest rates.
You can load up with debt as well: it's fairly easy to open up a margin account at eg Interactive Brokers, or (almost equivalently) to trade in options (which have margin financing sort-of built-in).
This is the most arbitraged thing in the world, [...]
So we agree and you say that this thing is already priced in? Good.
Yes, market participants anticipate many things, and make their contracts based on what they expect. Not on any mechanical considerations of what happened before.
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You seem to assume that creditors are a bunch of morons?
Any inflation that's anticipated at the time a debt contract is made will be priced in to the debt contract. That's (part of) why high inflation economies have high interest rates.
You can load up with debt as well: it's fairly easy to open up a margin account at eg Interactive Brokers, or (almost equivalently) to trade in options (which have margin financing sort-of built-in).
After 2008 and 'too big to fail', you don't?
'Too big too fail' is mostly about taking advantage of (implicit or explicit) government guarantees. Ie making the taxpayer bail you out.
That's very different from normal creditors being morons.
(And yes, the people with resources often, but not always, have an easier time getting the government to give them even more resources.)
This is the most arbitraged thing in the world, as inflations are lagging indicators.
Chart M2 growth to CPI and you can clearly see what I mean.
So we agree and you say that this thing is already priced in? Good.
Yes, market participants anticipate many things, and make their contracts based on what they expect. Not on any mechanical considerations of what happened before.