This is prima facie plausible. The best way I know to get some empirical pricing on this would be DOOM option chains all the way back to 87 and the “volatility smile”.
If true, it’s an accelerant on all the worst things about the modern economy: value accrues not to sound fundamentals but those already well-enough capitalized to bet the tail in a diversified way, which is of course not an option for the working person.
Comments
This is prima facie plausible. The best way I know to get some empirical pricing on this would be DOOM option chains all the way back to 87 and the “volatility smile”.
If true, it’s an accelerant on all the worst things about the modern economy: value accrues not to sound fundamentals but those already well-enough capitalized to bet the tail in a diversified way, which is of course not an option for the working person.