"...After the March payday, its flagship Black Swan fund has produced a mean annual return on invested capital of 76%* since the firm was created in 2008. It’s a good result, but if you were going to make the same calculation as of Dec. 31 2019, the long-term compounded return would only be marginally better than that of the S&P 500 over the same time period..." - https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2020/04/13/how-a-go...
Also the way they report performance is singularly unique:
The only question you need to ask Universa Investments is:
"Did you create other hedge fund portfolios...That could possibly have similar returns out of your expertise...BUT...did not? And did you win down those after a few months or 1-2 years, before reporting on the performance of the surviving one?"
The trick above, is directly from "Fooled by Randomness" by Taleb, who is listed as “distinguished scientific adviser” by the fund.
"And did you win down those after a few months or 1-2 years, before reporting on the performance of the surviving one?"
My employer (one of the bigger French corporations) from 2005 to 2010 released each year their financial reports showing a 5% revenue gain over the previous year, which was a good performance at the time. Then a few months later, they revised their turnover and reduced it by 5%.
Apparently it was legal, and anyway no one ever commented.
When the next CEO arrived, the turnover in 2011 was reduced by 10% without explanation and again no one commented!
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Things you need to look at:
"...After the March payday, its flagship Black Swan fund has produced a mean annual return on invested capital of 76%* since the firm was created in 2008. It’s a good result, but if you were going to make the same calculation as of Dec. 31 2019, the long-term compounded return would only be marginally better than that of the S&P 500 over the same time period..." - https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2020/04/13/how-a-go...
Also the way they report performance is singularly unique:
"Why One Firm's 3,612% Return Is Drawing the Ire of Hedge Funds" - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/why-one-firm-s-3-612-return-is-d...
The only question you need to ask Universa Investments is: "Did you create other hedge fund portfolios...That could possibly have similar returns out of your expertise...BUT...did not? And did you win down those after a few months or 1-2 years, before reporting on the performance of the surviving one?"
The trick above, is directly from "Fooled by Randomness" by Taleb, who is listed as “distinguished scientific adviser” by the fund.
My employer (one of the bigger French corporations) from 2005 to 2010 released each year their financial reports showing a 5% revenue gain over the previous year, which was a good performance at the time. Then a few months later, they revised their turnover and reduced it by 5%.
Apparently it was legal, and anyway no one ever commented.
When the next CEO arrived, the turnover in 2011 was reduced by 10% without explanation and again no one commented!