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Comment on AI: Startup vs Incumbent Value (2022)parent

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I think this is a pretty good illustration of why incumbents are likely to capture much of the value though. Some simple scripts using OSS libraries can do some pretty amazing stuff you'd have previously needed advanced research teams to even attempt.

So the majority of the value gets captured not by companies focused on writing new components that nobody else can match, but by the incumbents with the wealth of proprietary data to feed into the components, or the infrastructure to run the more infrastructure-dependent models at scale, or the customer base to milk for AI-enabled versions of their existing product or selling AI consulting services.

Don't get me wrong, it is cool for indie game developers to be able to procedurally generate NPC conversations. But indie game developers are not likely to capture more value from being able to generate stuff very easily than Microsoft.

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