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Comment on AI: Startup vs Incumbent Value (2022)

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Really tough one to guess. If the small laptop-run models win (become useful enough), the value may be captured by the commons, with various applications (glue code essentially) capturing the value. A bit like the early internet scenario - good for startups.

Likely NVidia, AWS, Azure, Google Cloud will capture a lot of the value. OpenAI might, but they are playing a game of tennis where they are "Advantage" but could still lose.

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