So what happens when we can predict stock market with much more confidence? What kind of effects would this have on the market. Corporations having much better predictions but also the average person.
They are complex systems that are both traded and counter-traded, and more. So you have to ask after those questions in a positional mindset, and prepare for the million little details to be the part that threatens the entire premise.
I'd personally rather see it predict the weather in some ways, for one because the insights would be more instantly tractable.
Plenty of quant funds are already predicting the market with a fair degree of success -- RenTech has averaged something like a 35% return rate after fees on their Medallion Fund since its inception in the 1980s.
So I think the actual question here is: What happens when you can make these predictions without hiring dozens of Ph.Ds and paying them oodles of money?
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So what happens when we can predict stock market with much more confidence? What kind of effects would this have on the market. Corporations having much better predictions but also the average person.
They are complex systems that are both traded and counter-traded, and more. So you have to ask after those questions in a positional mindset, and prepare for the million little details to be the part that threatens the entire premise.
I'd personally rather see it predict the weather in some ways, for one because the insights would be more instantly tractable.
Plenty of quant funds are already predicting the market with a fair degree of success -- RenTech has averaged something like a 35% return rate after fees on their Medallion Fund since its inception in the 1980s.
So I think the actual question here is: What happens when you can make these predictions without hiring dozens of Ph.Ds and paying them oodles of money?
Maybe the efficient market hypothesis?