Why do you think super intelligence is not likely to happen within anyone's lifetime? Is there something about the problem that makes you confident in its difficulty? What other technologies would you put on a comparable ~100 year timescale of difficulty?
1st, there's no true definition of what intelligence is. Right now it's a moving target. Moving targets are hard to hit. Defining intelligence will take time. How can we create what we can't define?
2, we are getting close to processing speed limits and the amount of easy to process data. Yet, AGI is nowhere near. LLM's are remarkable but it's data processing at scale. It's no smarter than my word processor. It's useful but it's not AIG.
3, there's no defining theory that will get us to AGI.We don't know how to get there. What we have is wishful thinking that says we'll be there soon. In any project the early percentage towards our task is relatively easy. The last X% is hard. I think we are underestimating how much time and effort it takes to complete the project of AIG. We have only scratched the surface of it. The 80/20 rule is real.
AIG reminds me of the search for ETs. We feel we are close to meeting an ET. Some even believe we have encountered them. But we have 0 evidence that they exist. It's been burned in to our culture by fiction writers but nothing in our real life experience says they exist. Similarly we feel we will meet AIG soon. We might get to AIG but I think we are kidding ourselves that it will be here soon.
The real danger is the misuse of the AI we have by people. That really scares me.
We do it well enough with other things. ("I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description ["hard-core pornography"], and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it" -- Justice Potter Stewart)
Yet, AGI is nowhere near.
I don't think we have a reliable way of measuring how far away AGI is.
It's no smarter than my word processor.
Really? What word processor do you use?
there's no defining theory that will get us to AGI.We don't know how to get there.
I'd argue we also didn't know how to get here. But we did.
The real danger is[...]
There is plenty of room for more than one danger to be real.
Comments
Why do you think super intelligence is not likely to happen within anyone's lifetime? Is there something about the problem that makes you confident in its difficulty? What other technologies would you put on a comparable ~100 year timescale of difficulty?
1st, there's no true definition of what intelligence is. Right now it's a moving target. Moving targets are hard to hit. Defining intelligence will take time. How can we create what we can't define?
2, we are getting close to processing speed limits and the amount of easy to process data. Yet, AGI is nowhere near. LLM's are remarkable but it's data processing at scale. It's no smarter than my word processor. It's useful but it's not AIG.
3, there's no defining theory that will get us to AGI.We don't know how to get there. What we have is wishful thinking that says we'll be there soon. In any project the early percentage towards our task is relatively easy. The last X% is hard. I think we are underestimating how much time and effort it takes to complete the project of AIG. We have only scratched the surface of it. The 80/20 rule is real.
AIG reminds me of the search for ETs. We feel we are close to meeting an ET. Some even believe we have encountered them. But we have 0 evidence that they exist. It's been burned in to our culture by fiction writers but nothing in our real life experience says they exist. Similarly we feel we will meet AIG soon. We might get to AIG but I think we are kidding ourselves that it will be here soon.
The real danger is the misuse of the AI we have by people. That really scares me.
We do it well enough with other things. ("I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description ["hard-core pornography"], and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it" -- Justice Potter Stewart)
I don't think we have a reliable way of measuring how far away AGI is.
Really? What word processor do you use?
I'd argue we also didn't know how to get here. But we did.
There is plenty of room for more than one danger to be real.