It’s just hard to compare industries which are done growing with ones that still feel like they might be exponential forever.
Some industries never evolved too much. I don't see a big functional difference between cars a 100 years ago and cars now. And there were electric cars in 1900s.
A car is constraint by lots of things just like GP comment affirmed. Putting more gadgets in a car won't change what a car is or how it works at a fundamental level.
From the very first microprocessors to today's there is a big leap. If we apply that leap to cars they should be using nuclear fusion and take us to moon and back in seconds. And it's not like trillions of dollars weren't invested in car R&D in more than a century.
Software growth seems exponential only because of hardware and the Moore's Law. Which will come to an end soon.
Thanks to Moore's Law, we programmers, afforded to be careless, not think about performance or use unnecessary abstractions just out of esthetical or ideologic considerations. It allowed businesses to say that time to market trumps everything and customers should simply buy more powerful boxes or more boxes. Now this will come to an end soon and we will have to think about efficiency, speed and performance.
Or maybe chips will move from silicon to some alternative processes where growth is still possible.
Comments
Some industries never evolved too much. I don't see a big functional difference between cars a 100 years ago and cars now. And there were electric cars in 1900s.
A car is constraint by lots of things just like GP comment affirmed. Putting more gadgets in a car won't change what a car is or how it works at a fundamental level.
From the very first microprocessors to today's there is a big leap. If we apply that leap to cars they should be using nuclear fusion and take us to moon and back in seconds. And it's not like trillions of dollars weren't invested in car R&D in more than a century.
Software growth seems exponential only because of hardware and the Moore's Law. Which will come to an end soon.
Thanks to Moore's Law, we programmers, afforded to be careless, not think about performance or use unnecessary abstractions just out of esthetical or ideologic considerations. It allowed businesses to say that time to market trumps everything and customers should simply buy more powerful boxes or more boxes. Now this will come to an end soon and we will have to think about efficiency, speed and performance.
Or maybe chips will move from silicon to some alternative processes where growth is still possible.