No, they aren't "on record". Go find the cite. One paper had a source saying that it was active within 30 seconds of the collision (which is like 3x longer than the time shown on the video we have).
Look, the clearly most likely scenario here is that the driver got confused, overrode the AP, and then failed to maintain awareness as they commanded the sudden lane change. Obviously that's not what people want to hear, but it's the best explanation. I've pulled AP out and changed lanes manually, probably rapidly, on a bunch of occasions. All it takes is to do that when not paying attention...
All your logic was equally applicable to the accident in the linked article, and it was all wrong there too. (Also... Musk didn't "blame the driver" in the linked case? Not sure what you're citing. Tesla generally doesn't say anything about their customers' accidents, for some very obvious reasons.)
Just wait. All I'm telling you is that I drive with this product every day and I'm not seeing FSD behavior in that video. If it turns out I'm wrong then I'll sheepishly admit it. But I know which direction the spin runs and my BS detector is pretty good.
Tesla has already admitted to deactivating driver assist systems when they detect unavoidable accidents.
As for not seeing FSD behavior in that video...I do. It looks like the idiot Teslas I see every morning on my commute, randomly braking and swerving like drunk frat boys.
It looks like the idiot Teslas I see every morning on my commute, randomly braking and swerving like drunk frat boys.
Yeah, that's what all these arguments always come down to. They start with "safety" and end with simple emotion.
Look, I'm genuinely sorry there are jerks in Teslas near you. But they're just that: perfectly human jerks driving like perfectly normal human beings. Please don't project your hatred of the culture, or Musk, or EVs, or whatever on the safety aspects of the system.
Also: call a friend and get a ride. They're pretty amazing vehicles. You'd be stunned at how fun it is to have a robot drive you around.
It's truly bizarre that you are blaming the humans for the poor self driving by the car.
My coworker gave me a ride in his Tesla 2 months ago, on the roads near SpaceX's facility in SoCal. During the 15 minute ride FSD tried to cross over into the opposing lanes, ran a red, narrowly avoided hitting a cyclist (because the cyclist swerved away to save his life) and failed to recognize half of the cars on the road with us.
It was a terrifying experience. And he said it was not much worse than his normal commute with FSD.
My favorite one is when you’re stopped at a red light in a Tesla, and the on screen display shows the stationary cars and features around you bouncing around.
If that’s what it sees when it’s still, idk how to trust it when it’s moving.
It's just so amazingly frustrating to have these discussions where people get so close to understanding and then willfully turn away.
I mean, try this yourself! Pull up to a stop light, close your eyes, and recite the distances to and orientations of the nearest five or six vehicles. Now read it off the screen. Think you'll beat the car? Really? In fact, no, it's quite clear that the car, with 360 degrees of camera coverage at 30 Hz and no fovea or neck scanning required, has a vastly better picture of its surroundings than the driver. It's not even close.
But yeah, the esimates aren't precise and yeah, they do jump around[1]. You're absolutely correct about the way the modelling works. You're just disastrously wrong about the way that the competing systems perform.
[1] I will grant that there's probably a human factors issue here. In fact the human driver really can't do much to process that display and it's probably best that details like just be left out or filtered down to a minimal subset.
That isn't how humans work. In any case, most humans are capable of FSD. Your Tesla isn't. No one cares about 360 degree 30Hz cameras. Just like two eyes aren't the solution to driving. Lots of animals have two eyes, most of them won't ever drive a vehicle.
Other commenter "My coworker gave me a ride in his Tesla ... FSD tried to cross over into the opposing lanes, ran a red, narrowly avoided hitting a cyclist"
Your reply "Huh. FSD (Mine) took my kid to diving practice this afternoon. Weird world. Just please stop with the hate."
I'm not sure what you hope to prove by replying to anecdotes about unacceptable autopilot with anecdotes about acceptable autopilot? It doesn't mean everyone else is a hater any more than you're a shill. It just means autopilot performance across hardware and environmental factors is not within the envelope it needs to be.
Maybe try replacing "FSD" in these comments with the names of two fictional friends.
"Steve tried to cross over into the opposing lanes, ran a red, narrowly avoided hitting a cyclist"
"Huh. Rick took my kid to diving practice this afternoon. Weird world. Just please stop with the hate."
Should we trust Steve because Rick is a good driver?
I don't disagree with anything you're saying here, though with one minor exception: while Steve and Rick are two people with different experiences, risk acceptance, attentiveness, etc, FSD is FSD.
Speaking of risk acceptance, I wouldn't trust my life or anyone else's to FSD. I don't have FSD in my Model 3, but I have used all of the other driver assist features. There have been too many times when those features have made serious mistakes, so I don't use them. Even at it's best, FSD appears to be about as good as the worst drivers on the road. One anecdote of poor performance, for me, is one too many.
Should we trust Steve because Rick is a good driver?
We should accept that all drivers make mistakes, even you, and demand measurable safety metrics from all our control systems. Is that really so weird?
What we should not do is start thousand-comment flame wars on HN about how Steve is unsafe and that we should take away his license. In fact, those three mistakes are of course routine for human drivers. I bet you personally, statop, have done them in the past. And yet, no lynch mob.
That's the "hate" part I'm talking about. Please stop. Please. It's really hurting the discourse about a product area that's actually very subject to measurement, and about a specific product that is objectively very safe.
Tesla's self-driving/ADAS have more confirmed fatalities than the self-driving/ADAS of every other automaker in the world combined.
The NHTSA shows that Tesla AP/FSD is 50+x more likely to get into an accident than Ford and Toyota's systems, despite Tesla AP/FSD being available in a tiny fraction of the cars. Tesla AP/FSD is more than 3x more likely to get into an accident than the second worst automaker's comparable systems.
It doesn't matter how you try to analyze the statistics, Tesla AP/FSD is objectively the most dangerous in the world.
The NHTSA shows that Tesla AP/FSD is 50+x more likely to get into an accident than Ford and Toyota's systems
You just made that up. This is untrue, period. It's a lie. Please. Stop. I don't understand why you want to do this or what you think you're achieving by this kind of argument.
I was recently in a Tesla taxi (not in FSD mode) and I was surprised how badly the detection works. It would recognize pedestrians as roadside bins, then change its mind. Scooters and push bikes would just pop up and disappear etc. Seems to me a lot more sensor fusion work is needed to make this reliable.
Huh. Mine took my kid to diving practice this afternoon. Weird world.
Just please stop with the hate. That's really all I'm asking. If there's data let's argue about data. But once you jump off into "idiot Teslas randomly braking and swerving like drunk frat boys" there's no coming back to rational discourse.
I'm saying that it was probably active until the driver disengaged it to make that lane change. Everything about that video says "confused driver" and not autopilot misbehavior. The car will let the blinkers run for 3-4 seconds before a lane change, and it's very cautious about when to do it (much more so than a human driver would be).
Do I have proof? Of course not, it's not my car. But that's what it looks like. And I'm pointing out that this is exactly what happened in the accident in the linked article, where Tesla drivers were all pointing out how this just didn't match AP behavior[1]. And they were ignored. And they were right. Just wait.
[1] In that case: the version of autopilot at the time would only engage on roads with lane markings, and this road didn't have them. Also the speed of the collision could only be reached on that tiny road with manually-commanded acceleration, AP is quite timid.
Comments
No, they aren't "on record". Go find the cite. One paper had a source saying that it was active within 30 seconds of the collision (which is like 3x longer than the time shown on the video we have).
Look, the clearly most likely scenario here is that the driver got confused, overrode the AP, and then failed to maintain awareness as they commanded the sudden lane change. Obviously that's not what people want to hear, but it's the best explanation. I've pulled AP out and changed lanes manually, probably rapidly, on a bunch of occasions. All it takes is to do that when not paying attention...
All your logic was equally applicable to the accident in the linked article, and it was all wrong there too. (Also... Musk didn't "blame the driver" in the linked case? Not sure what you're citing. Tesla generally doesn't say anything about their customers' accidents, for some very obvious reasons.)
Just wait. All I'm telling you is that I drive with this product every day and I'm not seeing FSD behavior in that video. If it turns out I'm wrong then I'll sheepishly admit it. But I know which direction the spin runs and my BS detector is pretty good.
Tesla has already admitted to deactivating driver assist systems when they detect unavoidable accidents.
As for not seeing FSD behavior in that video...I do. It looks like the idiot Teslas I see every morning on my commute, randomly braking and swerving like drunk frat boys.
Yeah, that's what all these arguments always come down to. They start with "safety" and end with simple emotion.
Look, I'm genuinely sorry there are jerks in Teslas near you. But they're just that: perfectly human jerks driving like perfectly normal human beings. Please don't project your hatred of the culture, or Musk, or EVs, or whatever on the safety aspects of the system.
Also: call a friend and get a ride. They're pretty amazing vehicles. You'd be stunned at how fun it is to have a robot drive you around.
It's truly bizarre that you are blaming the humans for the poor self driving by the car.
My coworker gave me a ride in his Tesla 2 months ago, on the roads near SpaceX's facility in SoCal. During the 15 minute ride FSD tried to cross over into the opposing lanes, ran a red, narrowly avoided hitting a cyclist (because the cyclist swerved away to save his life) and failed to recognize half of the cars on the road with us.
It was a terrifying experience. And he said it was not much worse than his normal commute with FSD.
My favorite one is when you’re stopped at a red light in a Tesla, and the on screen display shows the stationary cars and features around you bouncing around.
If that’s what it sees when it’s still, idk how to trust it when it’s moving.
It's just so amazingly frustrating to have these discussions where people get so close to understanding and then willfully turn away.
I mean, try this yourself! Pull up to a stop light, close your eyes, and recite the distances to and orientations of the nearest five or six vehicles. Now read it off the screen. Think you'll beat the car? Really? In fact, no, it's quite clear that the car, with 360 degrees of camera coverage at 30 Hz and no fovea or neck scanning required, has a vastly better picture of its surroundings than the driver. It's not even close.
But yeah, the esimates aren't precise and yeah, they do jump around[1]. You're absolutely correct about the way the modelling works. You're just disastrously wrong about the way that the competing systems perform.
[1] I will grant that there's probably a human factors issue here. In fact the human driver really can't do much to process that display and it's probably best that details like just be left out or filtered down to a minimal subset.
That isn't how humans work. In any case, most humans are capable of FSD. Your Tesla isn't. No one cares about 360 degree 30Hz cameras. Just like two eyes aren't the solution to driving. Lots of animals have two eyes, most of them won't ever drive a vehicle.
Other commenter "My coworker gave me a ride in his Tesla ... FSD tried to cross over into the opposing lanes, ran a red, narrowly avoided hitting a cyclist"
Your reply "Huh. FSD (Mine) took my kid to diving practice this afternoon. Weird world. Just please stop with the hate."
I'm not sure what you hope to prove by replying to anecdotes about unacceptable autopilot with anecdotes about acceptable autopilot? It doesn't mean everyone else is a hater any more than you're a shill. It just means autopilot performance across hardware and environmental factors is not within the envelope it needs to be.
Maybe try replacing "FSD" in these comments with the names of two fictional friends.
"Steve tried to cross over into the opposing lanes, ran a red, narrowly avoided hitting a cyclist"
"Huh. Rick took my kid to diving practice this afternoon. Weird world. Just please stop with the hate."
Should we trust Steve because Rick is a good driver?
I don't disagree with anything you're saying here, though with one minor exception: while Steve and Rick are two people with different experiences, risk acceptance, attentiveness, etc, FSD is FSD.
Speaking of risk acceptance, I wouldn't trust my life or anyone else's to FSD. I don't have FSD in my Model 3, but I have used all of the other driver assist features. There have been too many times when those features have made serious mistakes, so I don't use them. Even at it's best, FSD appears to be about as good as the worst drivers on the road. One anecdote of poor performance, for me, is one too many.
We should accept that all drivers make mistakes, even you, and demand measurable safety metrics from all our control systems. Is that really so weird?
What we should not do is start thousand-comment flame wars on HN about how Steve is unsafe and that we should take away his license. In fact, those three mistakes are of course routine for human drivers. I bet you personally, statop, have done them in the past. And yet, no lynch mob.
That's the "hate" part I'm talking about. Please stop. Please. It's really hurting the discourse about a product area that's actually very subject to measurement, and about a specific product that is objectively very safe.
Tesla's self-driving/ADAS have more confirmed fatalities than the self-driving/ADAS of every other automaker in the world combined.
The NHTSA shows that Tesla AP/FSD is 50+x more likely to get into an accident than Ford and Toyota's systems, despite Tesla AP/FSD being available in a tiny fraction of the cars. Tesla AP/FSD is more than 3x more likely to get into an accident than the second worst automaker's comparable systems.
It doesn't matter how you try to analyze the statistics, Tesla AP/FSD is objectively the most dangerous in the world.
You just made that up. This is untrue, period. It's a lie. Please. Stop. I don't understand why you want to do this or what you think you're achieving by this kind of argument.
Swerve into oncoming traffic, run red lights, and come dangerously close to hitting cyclists? Who do you think I am, Vin Diesel at the Tour de France?
“Objectively safe“ was a pretty quick r/agedlikemilk given the recall.
I was recently in a Tesla taxi (not in FSD mode) and I was surprised how badly the detection works. It would recognize pedestrians as roadside bins, then change its mind. Scooters and push bikes would just pop up and disappear etc. Seems to me a lot more sensor fusion work is needed to make this reliable.
Huh. Mine took my kid to diving practice this afternoon. Weird world.
Just please stop with the hate. That's really all I'm asking. If there's data let's argue about data. But once you jump off into "idiot Teslas randomly braking and swerving like drunk frat boys" there's no coming back to rational discourse.
Merely stating it was active _within_ 30 seconds, that doesn’t mean it was deactivated at the 30 second mark. Or am I missing something?
I'm saying that it was probably active until the driver disengaged it to make that lane change. Everything about that video says "confused driver" and not autopilot misbehavior. The car will let the blinkers run for 3-4 seconds before a lane change, and it's very cautious about when to do it (much more so than a human driver would be).
Do I have proof? Of course not, it's not my car. But that's what it looks like. And I'm pointing out that this is exactly what happened in the accident in the linked article, where Tesla drivers were all pointing out how this just didn't match AP behavior[1]. And they were ignored. And they were right. Just wait.
[1] In that case: the version of autopilot at the time would only engage on roads with lane markings, and this road didn't have them. Also the speed of the collision could only be reached on that tiny road with manually-commanded acceleration, AP is quite timid.