Current AI models are like an airplane and programming jobs are like flying to the moon. No number of incremental advancements on current technology are going to replace programming jobs. That only seems possible if you don't understand the details.
You need a catalogically different technology (a rocket) to do space travel.
A layperson seeing the first airplane and rapid advancement in that industry could easily think, "look we've been flying higher and higher, soon airplanes will fly to other planets." If you were to point out that that's not how airplanes work they might retort that people used to think flight was impossible at all.
We're at the Wright flyer in 1903 moment in ML/AI right now. It will get a lot better an change many things but it will ultimately still be just a tool of programming rather than a replacement for it until someone invents AGI, and even as someone who is optimistic about that happening, I'd guess we're still decades away.
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Current AI models are like an airplane and programming jobs are like flying to the moon. No number of incremental advancements on current technology are going to replace programming jobs. That only seems possible if you don't understand the details.
You need a catalogically different technology (a rocket) to do space travel.
A layperson seeing the first airplane and rapid advancement in that industry could easily think, "look we've been flying higher and higher, soon airplanes will fly to other planets." If you were to point out that that's not how airplanes work they might retort that people used to think flight was impossible at all.
We're at the Wright flyer in 1903 moment in ML/AI right now. It will get a lot better an change many things but it will ultimately still be just a tool of programming rather than a replacement for it until someone invents AGI, and even as someone who is optimistic about that happening, I'd guess we're still decades away.