I like this dialogue because you seem to be arguing in good faith, so I'll keep it going.
1) Precautionary principle needs to be _qualified_ by what you are cautious of. E.g. "I am being cautious about increasing global warming" or "I am being cautious about increasing human suffering" result in very different policy approaches. If we actually used the precautionary principle we wouldn't have burnt fossil fuels to begin with!
3) That is an assumption, it is _probably_ true, but I would prefer to see explicit reasoning (e.g. in an IPCC report), but as I mentioned before, IPCC ignores worst case scenarios in the delusional hope that we won't need to worry about them.
Charles blog post is a good example of articles discussing global warming that aren't very helpful. It is high-level, makes a lot of assumptions and seems disconnected from any actual solution. For example, PV is cheaper? That's very location-specific and depends on storage costs. Petrochemical exporters are Authoritarian?!? I don't think Australia, Canada, Norway or the USA fit this category. He doesn't seem to identify a problem besides propaganda, and he doesn't offer much in the way of a solution for this. He is a writer, so he sees the issue as a communication problem. That is just one facet, and he can't even suggest a solution in passing.
I don't agree that the precautionary principle needs to be qualified, or at least not constrained to a single axis - we want to exercise precaution about any changes (or any resistance to change) - with effectively a 'do no harm' focus.
Human suffering ... I don't know how you're measuring this, or projecting it from current state, but 2/3 of the planet are going to be in unimaginably dire straits once regular rainfall patterns change.
I think when we started burning coal in anger, say late 1600's, early 1700's - literally no one contemplated the potential for planet-scale effects, so I don't think that application of the PP applies. I think we're still pretty dumb and full of hubris, but we can contemplate these potential outcomes, and we know of many unintended outcome scenarios, so the PP is much more compelling now.
Charlie's not trying to solve climate change - just drawing attention to why it's not being addressed. Petrochemical exporters are rarely countries, but rather the oligarchs that own the materials. Here in AU we have a tiny handful, f.e. and I expect a similar situation elsewhere - so while the current political administration is nominally democratic, that's effectively irrelevant.
EDIT oh, regarding (3) that you responded to - I'd point out the myriad stats around fossil fuel vs renewables 'jobs', especially graphed over the past decade, and especially in the USA. I think we're now at a time where anyone claiming renewables aren't a better economic option for a society are the ones that need to provide citations.
I think a PP without qualification becomes so nebulous that it can't be used in anger. Like what is wrong with saying that the most precautious we can be is to turn off all fossil fuels immediately? Lets stop cement and fertilizer production while we're at it. Starvation concerns? Irrelevant because we're being Precautious(TM).
When are 2/3 going to be in dire straits? 10 years, 50 years, 100 years? It matters to our policy response, that is my whole point. Repeating "global warming bad" isn't wrong but it doesn't inform policy.
More jobs = better?! That simply means it takes more resources to produce the same output. That is efficiency going down and is not good for the economy. But that doesn't matter because using the PP means that economic health isn't important. THIS is why it is important that institutions like IPCC need to consider all possibilities. We can't tell if using more labour is a good thing unless we can compare it to the downside! If we limit our imagination to 1.5C warming, we are deluding ourselves.
Comments
I like this dialogue because you seem to be arguing in good faith, so I'll keep it going. 1) Precautionary principle needs to be _qualified_ by what you are cautious of. E.g. "I am being cautious about increasing global warming" or "I am being cautious about increasing human suffering" result in very different policy approaches. If we actually used the precautionary principle we wouldn't have burnt fossil fuels to begin with! 3) That is an assumption, it is _probably_ true, but I would prefer to see explicit reasoning (e.g. in an IPCC report), but as I mentioned before, IPCC ignores worst case scenarios in the delusional hope that we won't need to worry about them.
Charles blog post is a good example of articles discussing global warming that aren't very helpful. It is high-level, makes a lot of assumptions and seems disconnected from any actual solution. For example, PV is cheaper? That's very location-specific and depends on storage costs. Petrochemical exporters are Authoritarian?!? I don't think Australia, Canada, Norway or the USA fit this category. He doesn't seem to identify a problem besides propaganda, and he doesn't offer much in the way of a solution for this. He is a writer, so he sees the issue as a communication problem. That is just one facet, and he can't even suggest a solution in passing.
I don't agree that the precautionary principle needs to be qualified, or at least not constrained to a single axis - we want to exercise precaution about any changes (or any resistance to change) - with effectively a 'do no harm' focus.
Human suffering ... I don't know how you're measuring this, or projecting it from current state, but 2/3 of the planet are going to be in unimaginably dire straits once regular rainfall patterns change.
I think when we started burning coal in anger, say late 1600's, early 1700's - literally no one contemplated the potential for planet-scale effects, so I don't think that application of the PP applies. I think we're still pretty dumb and full of hubris, but we can contemplate these potential outcomes, and we know of many unintended outcome scenarios, so the PP is much more compelling now.
Charlie's not trying to solve climate change - just drawing attention to why it's not being addressed. Petrochemical exporters are rarely countries, but rather the oligarchs that own the materials. Here in AU we have a tiny handful, f.e. and I expect a similar situation elsewhere - so while the current political administration is nominally democratic, that's effectively irrelevant.
EDIT oh, regarding (3) that you responded to - I'd point out the myriad stats around fossil fuel vs renewables 'jobs', especially graphed over the past decade, and especially in the USA. I think we're now at a time where anyone claiming renewables aren't a better economic option for a society are the ones that need to provide citations.
I think a PP without qualification becomes so nebulous that it can't be used in anger. Like what is wrong with saying that the most precautious we can be is to turn off all fossil fuels immediately? Lets stop cement and fertilizer production while we're at it. Starvation concerns? Irrelevant because we're being Precautious(TM).
When are 2/3 going to be in dire straits? 10 years, 50 years, 100 years? It matters to our policy response, that is my whole point. Repeating "global warming bad" isn't wrong but it doesn't inform policy.
More jobs = better?! That simply means it takes more resources to produce the same output. That is efficiency going down and is not good for the economy. But that doesn't matter because using the PP means that economic health isn't important. THIS is why it is important that institutions like IPCC need to consider all possibilities. We can't tell if using more labour is a good thing unless we can compare it to the downside! If we limit our imagination to 1.5C warming, we are deluding ourselves.