Analysts predicted ~10% earnings growth in 2008 and it turned out to be -70%
Analysts by and large just extrapolate the trend. If there’s a severe recession, actual earnings could be 190 or even less.
That being said, buying around 3500 or below seems a decent value long term. But I don’t think this is a market where you should wait, instead pick individual companies that are already too cheap and hold them.
I bought a bunch of REITs with 6-8x ffo multiples, low debt, and double digit growth rates. Why bother with the 20x+ PE companies?
There are also many small cap growth companies at 1-2x sales and 30%+ growth rates. Why buy one at 10x sales?
IG bonds yielding 8% close to risk free?
You’d think this would all be obvious, yet major imbalances in valuations exist and is there for the taking.
Comments
Analysts predicted ~10% earnings growth in 2008 and it turned out to be -70%
Analysts by and large just extrapolate the trend. If there’s a severe recession, actual earnings could be 190 or even less.
That being said, buying around 3500 or below seems a decent value long term. But I don’t think this is a market where you should wait, instead pick individual companies that are already too cheap and hold them.
I bought a bunch of REITs with 6-8x ffo multiples, low debt, and double digit growth rates. Why bother with the 20x+ PE companies?
There are also many small cap growth companies at 1-2x sales and 30%+ growth rates. Why buy one at 10x sales?
IG bonds yielding 8% close to risk free?
You’d think this would all be obvious, yet major imbalances in valuations exist and is there for the taking.