China is in a funny situation of this hitting right after government investment of several billion has disappeared (for their chip industry). And serval thousand microchip companies have closed shop already.
Sure some countries could leverage the recent flushout of corruption and hundreds of thousands of employees of the microchip industry looking for work. But I doubt China will be able to.
Not really, it's expected quirks of ambitious PRC industrial policy which have historically been successful. Spam it until you make it. Inefficient on paper, but ultimately extremely efficient because the alternative is to have no indigenous options. Losing few billions out of ~100B worth of big funds over ~10 years is just cost of business (fast, cheap, good etc). It's about as inefficient as Intel insisting on divident payments + layoffs even with CHIPs. But in PRC, folks actually get punished / incentives aligned via anti-corruption / CCDI. Meanwhile, actual PRC semi capacity has increased dramatically in last few years, after leadership decided to stop halfassing post Huawei sanctions.
some countries
Thousands semi shops closed down because that's what it takes to speedrun the ENTIRE semi supply chain, an effort no other country can even attempt.
looking for work
US export controls just destroyed 1/3 of western semi revenues, there will likely be mass layoffs in west coming. Meanwhile PRC domestic semi industry just became a gold rush for non-American companies / talent and the incentive to de-Americanize US origin tech to create parallel semi supply chain to service PRC's 400B semi industry. There's a reason US Gov had to unilaterally announce these new measures on the steps of CHIP4 when other countries said they're not interested in proposed level export controls.
Comments
China is in a funny situation of this hitting right after government investment of several billion has disappeared (for their chip industry). And serval thousand microchip companies have closed shop already.
Sure some countries could leverage the recent flushout of corruption and hundreds of thousands of employees of the microchip industry looking for work. But I doubt China will be able to.
Not really, it's expected quirks of ambitious PRC industrial policy which have historically been successful. Spam it until you make it. Inefficient on paper, but ultimately extremely efficient because the alternative is to have no indigenous options. Losing few billions out of ~100B worth of big funds over ~10 years is just cost of business (fast, cheap, good etc). It's about as inefficient as Intel insisting on divident payments + layoffs even with CHIPs. But in PRC, folks actually get punished / incentives aligned via anti-corruption / CCDI. Meanwhile, actual PRC semi capacity has increased dramatically in last few years, after leadership decided to stop halfassing post Huawei sanctions.
Thousands semi shops closed down because that's what it takes to speedrun the ENTIRE semi supply chain, an effort no other country can even attempt.
US export controls just destroyed 1/3 of western semi revenues, there will likely be mass layoffs in west coming. Meanwhile PRC domestic semi industry just became a gold rush for non-American companies / talent and the incentive to de-Americanize US origin tech to create parallel semi supply chain to service PRC's 400B semi industry. There's a reason US Gov had to unilaterally announce these new measures on the steps of CHIP4 when other countries said they're not interested in proposed level export controls.