UKR also seems to have struck at the only other rail line for southern Ukraine today [0,1]. If true, then the only supply route to Kherson and Crimea is the M14 highway and the one lane of the Kerch bridge. The M14 is problematic at it runs through areas of high UKR partisan activity. The one last lane on the Kerch bridge is also not likely to last long if it is going to be used as a main supply hub for all of RU operations, not only due to UKR strikes, but just normal wear and tear in winter. Supplying via sea is also a no-go as we saw with the sinking of the Moskova and the strikes against RU airbases in Crimea.
There is likely no workable method of supply or reinforcement for RU forces in southern Ukraine this winter.
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UKR also seems to have struck at the only other rail line for southern Ukraine today [0,1]. If true, then the only supply route to Kherson and Crimea is the M14 highway and the one lane of the Kerch bridge. The M14 is problematic at it runs through areas of high UKR partisan activity. The one last lane on the Kerch bridge is also not likely to last long if it is going to be used as a main supply hub for all of RU operations, not only due to UKR strikes, but just normal wear and tear in winter. Supplying via sea is also a no-go as we saw with the sinking of the Moskova and the strikes against RU airbases in Crimea.
There is likely no workable method of supply or reinforcement for RU forces in southern Ukraine this winter.
[0] https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/10/08/himars-strike-destroy...
[1] https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/15786357973598986...