In my opinion, several steps in your chain of reasoning break down.
> 1. Amazon is --- probably, and for the next 18 months or so --- going to have the most popular Android tablet on the market.
In the US market. Until and unless Amazon changes it the Kindle Fire (like the Nooks) are irrelevant internationally. In addition, making the Kindle Fire international is easier said than done. With a few exceptions, Amazon needs to secure rights to sell movies and music overseas (books are taken care of, for the most part). A further complication is that Amazon's Cloud Player currently relies on recent court decisions codifying fair use rights (with respect to media storage and streaming) that may not exist in other countries.
> 3. Android developers are going to be compelled to deliver software to Amazon users, because Amazon is going to supply a plurality of the entire addressable market for Android apps.
The only plurality Amazon has a chance of capturing in the foreseeable future is "Android tablets in the US". An interesting slice, to be sure, but one of many.
> 4. To supply Amazon users with Android apps, developers have to use the Amazon market.
False. The Kindle Fire permits side-loading (and it is no harder than side-loading Amazon's Appstore onto a typical Android phone). Alternative app stores (e.g. GetJar) are going to promote themselves and give even Kindle Fire users incentives to install them (e.g. GetJar's time-limited exclusive. Beyond that, prominent open-source software available for Android (e.g. Firefox, Connectbot) isn't in Amazon's Appstore, giving users another incentive to sideload.
> 5. Not only will developers need to use the Amazon market to address Amazon customers, but off-brand Android users can (and may) also end up relying on Amazon's market.
Off-brand users are most likely getting an app store by side-loading anyway, so I don't see how they're going to end up relying on one store to the exclusion of others. It seems more likely that each store will have its pluses and minuses and off-brand users will choose between them on that basis.
Comments
In my opinion, several steps in your chain of reasoning break down.
> 1. Amazon is --- probably, and for the next 18 months or so --- going to have the most popular Android tablet on the market.
In the US market. Until and unless Amazon changes it the Kindle Fire (like the Nooks) are irrelevant internationally. In addition, making the Kindle Fire international is easier said than done. With a few exceptions, Amazon needs to secure rights to sell movies and music overseas (books are taken care of, for the most part). A further complication is that Amazon's Cloud Player currently relies on recent court decisions codifying fair use rights (with respect to media storage and streaming) that may not exist in other countries.
> 3. Android developers are going to be compelled to deliver software to Amazon users, because Amazon is going to supply a plurality of the entire addressable market for Android apps.
The only plurality Amazon has a chance of capturing in the foreseeable future is "Android tablets in the US". An interesting slice, to be sure, but one of many.
> 4. To supply Amazon users with Android apps, developers have to use the Amazon market.
False. The Kindle Fire permits side-loading (and it is no harder than side-loading Amazon's Appstore onto a typical Android phone). Alternative app stores (e.g. GetJar) are going to promote themselves and give even Kindle Fire users incentives to install them (e.g. GetJar's time-limited exclusive. Beyond that, prominent open-source software available for Android (e.g. Firefox, Connectbot) isn't in Amazon's Appstore, giving users another incentive to sideload.
> 5. Not only will developers need to use the Amazon market to address Amazon customers, but off-brand Android users can (and may) also end up relying on Amazon's market.
Off-brand users are most likely getting an app store by side-loading anyway, so I don't see how they're going to end up relying on one store to the exclusion of others. It seems more likely that each store will have its pluses and minuses and off-brand users will choose between them on that basis.