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Comment on The Toothpaste Argument for Universal Basic Income

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It's true that if sales are good, then production can continue. But it's not clear to me how this is a good argument for basic income. (And I say that as a supporter of UBI.)

Anyone thinking about the timing of production should also be thinking about credit and finance. Investment and borrowing are how businesses fix the timing problem. Someone with money needs to believe that the sales will happen, and then the business can buy stuff on credit and pay after the sales happen.

To say that "because we have income, we can work" seems like a garbled version of more conventional economics, which is that savings allows for investment?

But it doesn't seem like a shortage of credit is any real bottleneck for profitable ventures. Interest rates have gone up a bit, but that's because central banks think that there is too much credit in the system. That's the opposite problem.

The bottlenecks seem to be in the physical supply chain nowadays. In a chip shortage, for example, businesses can pay for what they need; the problem is that they can't find a seller.

So how do you connect that back to UBI? Sure, if more people have a reliable income then they will spend more, but this isn't the Depression and lack of demand doesn't seem to be the issue.

(Here's a sketch of a better argument: UBI gives poor people spending power, which will cause businesses to anticipate more sales to them and cater more to their needs.)

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