I've wondered is Rivian a legitimate play against Tesla et al, are the decisions being made in the correct path, or will that be unknown until 5-10+ years after billions more keep getting dumped into it that may hide any incompetence or missteps?
Is it the standard PR-IPO move to dump the risk onto the general public and get an exit for everyone early?
That's a fair question. They are somewhere between 10-15 years old at this point. They've been working toward a goal for a long time (long before they were on anybody's radar). You'd think they spent that time well.
But perhaps the feeding/funding frenzy over the last few years has ruined their roadmap. Their S-1 said that a tiny subsidiary of Ford is building the vehicle bodies and major components for them. Once they develop a proper stamping line at the factory they can take over and do it themselves (at quite the cost savings). Has that happened? I haven't found any mention of this in any SEC filing. Instead (?), while their Illinois factory is running at 15% capacity, they enter into an agreement to develop an even larger factory in Georgia.
EDIT - I did some map work. Their current factory is on the western edge of a 150,000 person very cheap metro area. It's about 30 minutes east of a 500,000 person very cheap metro area. Assembly line worker availability is going to be quite high. The site is a few miles from the confluence of 3 interstates; the road heading north has an interchange with I-74 (east/west) and the road going southeast has an interchange with I-55 (north/south). There is a Norfolk Southern rail line/rail yard adjacent to the property with a spur directly to the factory building. It connects to a Union Pacific line less than 5 miles away. This is a great location! At the county GIS site, you can see that their factory property is about 500 acres, most of which is empty parking lots and grass. Immediately to the east there are 200 acres of land held in a numbered trust (you'd have to go to court to find the real owner). To the west, you can see that Rivian already owns 380 acres of farmland. This isn't even close to the situation Tesla was in in Fremont. There is almost limitless room for expansion. Building a new factory site nowhere near their suppliers makes no sense at all.
Comments
I've wondered is Rivian a legitimate play against Tesla et al, are the decisions being made in the correct path, or will that be unknown until 5-10+ years after billions more keep getting dumped into it that may hide any incompetence or missteps?
Is it the standard PR-IPO move to dump the risk onto the general public and get an exit for everyone early?
That's a fair question. They are somewhere between 10-15 years old at this point. They've been working toward a goal for a long time (long before they were on anybody's radar). You'd think they spent that time well.
But perhaps the feeding/funding frenzy over the last few years has ruined their roadmap. Their S-1 said that a tiny subsidiary of Ford is building the vehicle bodies and major components for them. Once they develop a proper stamping line at the factory they can take over and do it themselves (at quite the cost savings). Has that happened? I haven't found any mention of this in any SEC filing. Instead (?), while their Illinois factory is running at 15% capacity, they enter into an agreement to develop an even larger factory in Georgia.
EDIT - I did some map work. Their current factory is on the western edge of a 150,000 person very cheap metro area. It's about 30 minutes east of a 500,000 person very cheap metro area. Assembly line worker availability is going to be quite high. The site is a few miles from the confluence of 3 interstates; the road heading north has an interchange with I-74 (east/west) and the road going southeast has an interchange with I-55 (north/south). There is a Norfolk Southern rail line/rail yard adjacent to the property with a spur directly to the factory building. It connects to a Union Pacific line less than 5 miles away. This is a great location! At the county GIS site, you can see that their factory property is about 500 acres, most of which is empty parking lots and grass. Immediately to the east there are 200 acres of land held in a numbered trust (you'd have to go to court to find the real owner). To the west, you can see that Rivian already owns 380 acres of farmland. This isn't even close to the situation Tesla was in in Fremont. There is almost limitless room for expansion. Building a new factory site nowhere near their suppliers makes no sense at all.