Picture this: an 11 ton tank of gas falls into your house and burns it to the ground, and all you're told is: "There are too many factors, you have to remember we're basically talking [about] the air resistance of a possibly tumbling abstract shape that [was] tumbling rather chaotically [when] any appreciable atmospheric effects [were taking] place. And that's just the start".
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Picture this: an 11 ton tank of gas falls into your house and burns it to the ground, and all you're told is: "There are too many factors, you have to remember we're basically talking [about] the air resistance of a possibly tumbling abstract shape that [was] tumbling rather chaotically [when] any appreciable atmospheric effects [were taking] place. And that's just the start".
I'm sorry you don't like it, but it's a fact. Predicting orbital decay to such accuracy is simply impossible.
In no part of that picture does the reality of the situation change.