To put things in perspective, in the financial crisis, China GDP declined even more than the US since they're export and manufacturing-based. They did a huge stimulus, which unlike certain other countries (ahem) was highly effective. Lots of construction, high-speed rail, etc. Recently the economy has been overheating and inflation has been running hot, the stimulus was withdrawn and money was tightened. A lot of stories of companies going bust, entrepreneurs fleeing loan sharks. (The banks mostly serve state-owned and established companies, but there is a sketchy shadow financial sector).
It's possible that there will be hard landing, but it's also possible the authorities will sidestep it, and it's just a shift away from light manufacturing toward higher value stuff, as that shifts to Philippines, Bangladesh etc.
China is a huge and complicated and rapidly-evolving place... worth a trip, had the chance to go for a few weeks earlier this year. The media gives us a bit of a cartoon version, kind of like they get the Hollywood version of the US (although since world culture is US-centric they're probably a little less ignorant of us).
Not to downplay that there are some big economic and environmental and civil rights issues (we have some too). They're sort of a billion-plus country version of the startup trying to bake a royal wedding cake in 10 minutes.
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To put things in perspective, in the financial crisis, China GDP declined even more than the US since they're export and manufacturing-based. They did a huge stimulus, which unlike certain other countries (ahem) was highly effective. Lots of construction, high-speed rail, etc. Recently the economy has been overheating and inflation has been running hot, the stimulus was withdrawn and money was tightened. A lot of stories of companies going bust, entrepreneurs fleeing loan sharks. (The banks mostly serve state-owned and established companies, but there is a sketchy shadow financial sector).
It's possible that there will be hard landing, but it's also possible the authorities will sidestep it, and it's just a shift away from light manufacturing toward higher value stuff, as that shifts to Philippines, Bangladesh etc.
China is a huge and complicated and rapidly-evolving place... worth a trip, had the chance to go for a few weeks earlier this year. The media gives us a bit of a cartoon version, kind of like they get the Hollywood version of the US (although since world culture is US-centric they're probably a little less ignorant of us).
Not to downplay that there are some big economic and environmental and civil rights issues (we have some too). They're sort of a billion-plus country version of the startup trying to bake a royal wedding cake in 10 minutes.