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Comment on Paul Graham predicts food shortagesparent

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No.

Just by eyeballing futures prices:

Cattle is up ~21% since pre-pandemic https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CME%3ALE1!

Lean hog is up 53% since pre-pandemic https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CME%3AHE1!

Also, looking at CPI figures, the "Meats, Poultry, Fish, and Eggs" is only up 19% since pre-pandemic levels.

The same pack of chicken wings that was 4 dollars last year is now over 8 dollars. You can publish whatever commodity price trends you want but it has almost 0 to do with end price.

You can publish whatever commodity price trends you want but it has almost 0 to do with end price.

How about retail price data published by USDA?

https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/DataFiles/52160/cuts.xls?v=...

Still does not change the price of an 8 pack whole wing at the grocer's till.

1. Your initial claim was "the price of meat doubled over the past year", not "8 pack whole wing price doubled"

2. If you don't mind me asking, what was the before/after price of said chicken wings, in unit terms? Some plausible reasons that might contribute the doubling you see, but not be representative of overall meat price trends include:

a. you misremembered (eg. $4.99 -> $4, $7.43 -> $8)

b. you were comparing sale vs non-sale prices

c. you buy some really boutique chicken wings that are subject to bigger price fluctuations than the typical wings that everybody else and the USDA measure

d. you were comparing regular chicken wings with boutique chicken wings

Otherwise, it seems strange for a grocery store to go from average chicken prices, to 66% above average (2x / 1.2x) in the span of a year.

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