Hum... What the thread describes sounds exactly like a shortage caused by price fixing. Except that the price fixing didn't even happen yet, so people are beforehand betting either on it or on there being enough stockpiling to absorb the full shock.

And who knows? The war isn't a month old yet, and I have no idea how long it takes to put some basic fertilizer manufacturing online. Also, most land can produce a crop or two without extra fertilizer with very little impact.