Yes this so much. Also true about when it comes to any subject that people feel like you "know" the solution or at least feel like they know more than the idiot next door. This happens so often, people see the tip of the iceberg and assume they know the shape of the whole thing. I think it's pretty logical to do this, however, otherwise how are we going to make sense of the world? We have to use whatever incomplete information we have to form a hypothesis of what is really true. Are we supposed to outsource our sense making to a third party? I think what Dan is suggesting here is even more dangerous than what the people at cocktail parties are doing. Namely, refrain from forming any conjectures about the state of the world because you could be wrong.
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Yes this so much. Also true about when it comes to any subject that people feel like you "know" the solution or at least feel like they know more than the idiot next door. This happens so often, people see the tip of the iceberg and assume they know the shape of the whole thing. I think it's pretty logical to do this, however, otherwise how are we going to make sense of the world? We have to use whatever incomplete information we have to form a hypothesis of what is really true. Are we supposed to outsource our sense making to a third party? I think what Dan is suggesting here is even more dangerous than what the people at cocktail parties are doing. Namely, refrain from forming any conjectures about the state of the world because you could be wrong.