I don't know what to make of this statement. Apple wants to control every aspect of the product.
Yup. There is zero chance they're going back to Intel. If a competitor could actually deliver better silicon than them, they'd be going to AMD, because AMD actually builds custom solutions and can be coaxed into at least getting decent security (see: Xbox), but that still leaves the power management gap on the table, and would force another ISA transition. It would be a monumental failure on Apple's part if their silicon engineering fell back to the point where it makes sense to give up all the control they have and the benefits that come with that to switch again to third-party chips. It's not going to happen unless Apple somehow ends up so far downhill that they are on the brink of failure and have no other choice.
OTOH, if Intel starts offering its fabs to third parties and somehow ends up ahead of TSMC again at a competitive price, sure, Apple will totally go for that. But they will definitely keep doing their own SoC designs.
If [an Apple] competitor could actually deliver better silicon than them, they'd be going to AMD, because AMD actually builds custom solutions and can be coaxed into at least getting decent security (see: Xbox), but that still leaves the power management gap on the table, and would force another ISA transition.
AMD has an ARM architectural license, they've released ARM processors (e.g., the Opteron A-series, the AMD Platform Security Processor, etc.), and were at one point experimenting with a common ARM/x86 platform (Project Skybridge).
If Apple wanted a third party to design an ARM-compatible processor for them, AMD would be capable of doing so. Indeed, when there was speculation last year about AMD developing an ARM processor, I suggested that Apple would be the only customer where that would make sense.[1] However, given the success of M1 and Apple's scaling strategy for it, it's unlikely that AMD has anything to offer right now that Apple would want.
Keep in mind that apparently Apple's architectural license is better than everyone else's, since it seems only Apple gets to extend the ISA in ways forbidden by the architecture spec.
AMD do have an architectural license, but they have never used it. All the ARM cores in their products have been licensed from ARM, not in-house designs, so far.
I think the most logical decision would be to design the Apple Modem / Wireless Chips with Intel Fab sometime in 2024+. Because it is the single product that doesn't directly compete with Intel, gets extra Fab capacity instead of relying on TSMC only, and doesn't need to go to their competitor Samsung Foundry.
There is also some Wireless / WiFI IP Apple could leverage, since Broadcom / Apple relationship has been unstable for years.
I suppose if Intel were to start producing an ARM architecture chip again there's a slim possibility there to win some of Apple's business. But you're right I can't see Apple making an ISA transition again, at least not this decade.
Considering Apple have custom extensions to ARM already, they'd be giving up more than just the SoC design if they switched to a standard ARM core, unless eventually all those extensions get upstreamed into the spec... but I don't see GXF [1] getting upstreamed, at least not like that. That one is just crazy.
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Yup. There is zero chance they're going back to Intel. If a competitor could actually deliver better silicon than them, they'd be going to AMD, because AMD actually builds custom solutions and can be coaxed into at least getting decent security (see: Xbox), but that still leaves the power management gap on the table, and would force another ISA transition. It would be a monumental failure on Apple's part if their silicon engineering fell back to the point where it makes sense to give up all the control they have and the benefits that come with that to switch again to third-party chips. It's not going to happen unless Apple somehow ends up so far downhill that they are on the brink of failure and have no other choice.
OTOH, if Intel starts offering its fabs to third parties and somehow ends up ahead of TSMC again at a competitive price, sure, Apple will totally go for that. But they will definitely keep doing their own SoC designs.
AMD has an ARM architectural license, they've released ARM processors (e.g., the Opteron A-series, the AMD Platform Security Processor, etc.), and were at one point experimenting with a common ARM/x86 platform (Project Skybridge).
If Apple wanted a third party to design an ARM-compatible processor for them, AMD would be capable of doing so. Indeed, when there was speculation last year about AMD developing an ARM processor, I suggested that Apple would be the only customer where that would make sense.[1] However, given the success of M1 and Apple's scaling strategy for it, it's unlikely that AMD has anything to offer right now that Apple would want.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25298928
Keep in mind that apparently Apple's architectural license is better than everyone else's, since it seems only Apple gets to extend the ISA in ways forbidden by the architecture spec.
AMD do have an architectural license, but they have never used it. All the ARM cores in their products have been licensed from ARM, not in-house designs, so far.
Being a founding member has its perks.
I think the most logical decision would be to design the Apple Modem / Wireless Chips with Intel Fab sometime in 2024+. Because it is the single product that doesn't directly compete with Intel, gets extra Fab capacity instead of relying on TSMC only, and doesn't need to go to their competitor Samsung Foundry.
There is also some Wireless / WiFI IP Apple could leverage, since Broadcom / Apple relationship has been unstable for years.
I suppose if Intel were to start producing an ARM architecture chip again there's a slim possibility there to win some of Apple's business. But you're right I can't see Apple making an ISA transition again, at least not this decade.
Considering Apple have custom extensions to ARM already, they'd be giving up more than just the SoC design if they switched to a standard ARM core, unless eventually all those extensions get upstreamed into the spec... but I don't see GXF [1] getting upstreamed, at least not like that. That one is just crazy.
[1] https://blog.svenpeter.dev/posts/m1_sprr_gxf/
With IFS, they could still manufacture their designs. Maybe, I'm not sure.