You're right, if the difference is that great. e.g. your handwaving of 1/50 sec to 4000 years, is about 50*10^11= 5,000,000,000,000 = a factor of 5 trillion (12 orders of magnitude).
I was thinking that 1 second's thought in a few months would be reasonable - but you are quite right, I don't have any real idea of the factor. Maybe that would be plausible if we found very efficient AI implementations, but the initial attempts of actually doing it at will undoubtedly be quite inefficient. And the slowness of feedback is a huge factor in coding, as well....
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You're right, if the difference is that great. e.g. your handwaving of 1/50 sec to 4000 years, is about 50*10^11= 5,000,000,000,000 = a factor of 5 trillion (12 orders of magnitude).
I was thinking that 1 second's thought in a few months would be reasonable - but you are quite right, I don't have any real idea of the factor. Maybe that would be plausible if we found very efficient AI implementations, but the initial attempts of actually doing it at will undoubtedly be quite inefficient. And the slowness of feedback is a huge factor in coding, as well....