Based on similar fates of previous social networks / instant messengers de jour. Every few years a new generation of users grew bored with one beehive and collectively left it for a new one. IRC/ICQ/AIM/YIM/MSN/Friendster/MySpace couldnt avoid this fate even everybody thought they could. No evidence points out that FB will be able to avoid people getting bored with it after x years.
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How do you calculate that chance?
Based on similar fates of previous social networks / instant messengers de jour. Every few years a new generation of users grew bored with one beehive and collectively left it for a new one. IRC/ICQ/AIM/YIM/MSN/Friendster/MySpace couldnt avoid this fate even everybody thought they could. No evidence points out that FB will be able to avoid people getting bored with it after x years.