The Brexit addled PM essentially killed the UK toehold in the EU. They are now a pimple on an elephant. More and more EU buyers and sellers with both with the added paperwork for Customs and VAT and do not forget label and electrical standards are just not going to both and will not buy/sell to the UK.
Here in Canada we see many ebay sellers with "not shipped to Canada" for simple added postage/UPS/DHL procedures - which cost extra. UPS and USPS will ship to Canada - but it needs more labelling, a pro-forma customs invoice, and a different process to ship.
The UK is already ruing the day that they let Johnson and the Brexit RA-RA stampede them into leaving. Labor and manufacturing are already being hammered - which Brexit blames on Covid....after Covid...it will not be coming back.
The Brexit addled PM essentially killed the UK toehold in the EU.
I'm sitting on the sidelines in the US, where we have our own problems, but this seems like the kind of unforced error that results in generations-long harm.
The UK gambled that their ball was so important that threatening to take it and go home would force concessions from everyone else in the EU. The EU, instead, has made it clear that the UK needs to EU, not the other way around.
This leaves the UK with no bargaining chips. The very best they can hope for is being able to come back to the table, hat in hand, asking to be readmitted. And even if the EU allows them to return, there will be no special considerations given to the UK this time around.
The UK gambled that their ball was so important that threatening to take it and go home would force concessions from everyone else in the EU. The EU, instead, has made it clear that the UK needs to EU, not the other way around.
The UK overplayed their hand to the point where for the EU, Brexit was the better of bad choices, but it is wrong to think that we do not need the UK. Losing one of the largest economies in the world with one of the best militaries is certainly a major blow to the amount of power the EU can project abroad, and the new trade barriers have also negatively affected both our economic projections. Looking at percentage of world GDP, the EU's share (well, today's members) has been steadily declining since the early 90s, while the US stayed constant at around 25% of global GDP and developing countries, mostly China, has a much larger piece of the pie.
Long-term, the UK's idea of more closely alligning with its former colonies might actually not be so bad, as there were always strong limits on how much the UK could do within the EU, and how much it would be willing to take. Demographics and stagnant politics aren't really pointing towards a rosy future of most countries in the EU. On the other hand, with the UK gone, the EU has the chance to go ahead with a couple of projects, including federalization, that before would have had a strong vote against from the UK.
Overall, we are all worse off, and currently being in a long-distance relationship UK-Germany, I'm just really saddened and frustrated by the things happening.
"The very best they can hope for is being able to come back to the table, hat in hand, asking to be readmitted."
As far as I know both the UK and the EU, this is not going to happen. Not just out of pride; the UK and the Franco-German axis of the EU were never a good political match and after this divorce, they will drift even more apart, because they do not need to hammer out compromises anymore.
IMHO the UK was smart to avoid entering the Eurozone. The monetary union without fiscal union is a wobbly construction, papered over by extremely low interest rates and sovereign debt buying programs such as PEPP.
One of the important features of earlier EEC was convergence of the periphery with the center; it still works to some degree in Central and Eastern Europe, but it stopped working in the Mediterranean.
threatening to take it and go home would force concessions
Trouble is the EU laws were agreements between 28 countries and can't easily be changed to suit one odd case. That was always the situation and the "we'll negotiate a good deal" thing was mostly lies for political purposes.
The UK is the third-biggest importer of goods from the EU after the US and China. It's an enormous market for EU goods which the EU most certainly needs. The UK is also the only nation in the geographic area except France with anything like a world-class military (although it doesn't compare to the US in that regard). It's also the second-biggest financial center in the world (and sometimes first depending on the relative position of New York and London).
It's not as though the UK will be holding out a begging bowl because the EU decides to be difficult. It will, however, have to develop new markets, which will take some time and cause some issues, including the cheese issue in this story. There will be ups and downs as the situation finds a new balance.
The UK is the third-biggest importer of goods from the EU after the US and China. It's an enormous market for EU goods which the EU most certainly needs.
The point is that the UK needs the EU much more than the EU needs the UK.
I think you suffer from myopia. The 4th export target of the EU is... Switzerland. Do we need Switzerland ?
No, the fact the UK is geographically close to the EU and has no choice to import from us, does not make it as important as China, 20% of humanity, and the US, a giant economic power.
We need to find a way to redirect/enrich India, another 20% of humanity, to import from us before following the UK in whatever folly takes them over their nationalist cheese ambitions.
South America is too close to North America, but if we destabilize the India/China relationship enough while finding a way to move them forward in consumption, they could choose to import more than they do from the US... or the UK I guess ?
As for Africa, I'm not sure how their import are, but it's probably going to take a while before reaching Chinese levels :(
I suppose we'll have to wait and see how things shake out. The same arguments you've made about the EU finding new markets applies to the UK too.
the UK in whatever folly takes them over their nationalist cheese ambitions
It's the EU's cheese ambitions that cause this problem. EU protectionism is why it's difficult for third countries to import certain goods without paying enormous tariffs.
Comments
The Brexit addled PM essentially killed the UK toehold in the EU. They are now a pimple on an elephant. More and more EU buyers and sellers with both with the added paperwork for Customs and VAT and do not forget label and electrical standards are just not going to both and will not buy/sell to the UK. Here in Canada we see many ebay sellers with "not shipped to Canada" for simple added postage/UPS/DHL procedures - which cost extra. UPS and USPS will ship to Canada - but it needs more labelling, a pro-forma customs invoice, and a different process to ship.
The UK is already ruing the day that they let Johnson and the Brexit RA-RA stampede them into leaving. Labor and manufacturing are already being hammered - which Brexit blames on Covid....after Covid...it will not be coming back.
Time for a new PM/Party/whatever!!!
I'm sitting on the sidelines in the US, where we have our own problems, but this seems like the kind of unforced error that results in generations-long harm.
The UK gambled that their ball was so important that threatening to take it and go home would force concessions from everyone else in the EU. The EU, instead, has made it clear that the UK needs to EU, not the other way around.
This leaves the UK with no bargaining chips. The very best they can hope for is being able to come back to the table, hat in hand, asking to be readmitted. And even if the EU allows them to return, there will be no special considerations given to the UK this time around.
There are literally no upsides for the UK here.
The UK overplayed their hand to the point where for the EU, Brexit was the better of bad choices, but it is wrong to think that we do not need the UK. Losing one of the largest economies in the world with one of the best militaries is certainly a major blow to the amount of power the EU can project abroad, and the new trade barriers have also negatively affected both our economic projections. Looking at percentage of world GDP, the EU's share (well, today's members) has been steadily declining since the early 90s, while the US stayed constant at around 25% of global GDP and developing countries, mostly China, has a much larger piece of the pie.
Long-term, the UK's idea of more closely alligning with its former colonies might actually not be so bad, as there were always strong limits on how much the UK could do within the EU, and how much it would be willing to take. Demographics and stagnant politics aren't really pointing towards a rosy future of most countries in the EU. On the other hand, with the UK gone, the EU has the chance to go ahead with a couple of projects, including federalization, that before would have had a strong vote against from the UK.
Overall, we are all worse off, and currently being in a long-distance relationship UK-Germany, I'm just really saddened and frustrated by the things happening.
I think your latter point is actually important. I think that while disastrous for the UK, Brexit will be great for the EU.
The UK was holding back the closer integration (like close military integration) that would make the EU a relevant power.
Could somebody actually tell me which 'colonies' they're meaning when people talk of this?
As far as I can tell they're either already trading as much with the UK as they want to be (AUS,NZ), or have a rather one-way interest (India, US).
Could anybody elaborate more on these supposed advantages?
"The very best they can hope for is being able to come back to the table, hat in hand, asking to be readmitted."
As far as I know both the UK and the EU, this is not going to happen. Not just out of pride; the UK and the Franco-German axis of the EU were never a good political match and after this divorce, they will drift even more apart, because they do not need to hammer out compromises anymore.
IMHO the UK was smart to avoid entering the Eurozone. The monetary union without fiscal union is a wobbly construction, papered over by extremely low interest rates and sovereign debt buying programs such as PEPP.
One of the important features of earlier EEC was convergence of the periphery with the center; it still works to some degree in Central and Eastern Europe, but it stopped working in the Mediterranean.
Trouble is the EU laws were agreements between 28 countries and can't easily be changed to suit one odd case. That was always the situation and the "we'll negotiate a good deal" thing was mostly lies for political purposes.
The UK is the third-biggest importer of goods from the EU after the US and China. It's an enormous market for EU goods which the EU most certainly needs. The UK is also the only nation in the geographic area except France with anything like a world-class military (although it doesn't compare to the US in that regard). It's also the second-biggest financial center in the world (and sometimes first depending on the relative position of New York and London).
It's not as though the UK will be holding out a begging bowl because the EU decides to be difficult. It will, however, have to develop new markets, which will take some time and cause some issues, including the cheese issue in this story. There will be ups and downs as the situation finds a new balance.
The point is that the UK needs the EU much more than the EU needs the UK.
I think you suffer from myopia. The 4th export target of the EU is... Switzerland. Do we need Switzerland ?
No, the fact the UK is geographically close to the EU and has no choice to import from us, does not make it as important as China, 20% of humanity, and the US, a giant economic power.
We need to find a way to redirect/enrich India, another 20% of humanity, to import from us before following the UK in whatever folly takes them over their nationalist cheese ambitions.
South America is too close to North America, but if we destabilize the India/China relationship enough while finding a way to move them forward in consumption, they could choose to import more than they do from the US... or the UK I guess ?
As for Africa, I'm not sure how their import are, but it's probably going to take a while before reaching Chinese levels :(
I suppose we'll have to wait and see how things shake out. The same arguments you've made about the EU finding new markets applies to the UK too.
It's the EU's cheese ambitions that cause this problem. EU protectionism is why it's difficult for third countries to import certain goods without paying enormous tariffs.
Oh, so it was the EU that decided to change the status quo ante?