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Because iMessage falls back to SMS and it's the SMS app everyone with an iPhone uses. So it's easy for people to get started. Certainly many people will start using it unknowingly. Convenience and zero-cost signup is powerful. Carriers are stupid, they can't find decent solutions but they can certainly see trouble ahead.

Wouldn't that create the reverse incentive for AT&T though? Jack up prices so that people get used to free iMessage but when get penalized heavy when they use those heavy messaging habits on someone without an iPhone?

They could raise prices in general, raise the minimum plan or have a pay-per-use ($0.2) like you suggested. I doubt there can be a acceptable price hike that can offset the decrease in usage volume.

Ultimately, these are stop gap measures and doesn't stop their decreasing ARPU from losing dollars to 3rd party services not run by them - text, overseas calls, apps, and media (songs, movies, ringtones), even voice calls and location-based services. Carriers have been projecting an increase contribution of ARPU from data services and text is a major component of it.

Anyway, raising prices to beat a downward trend is dangerous. Could make it worse.

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