By knowing the total tickets Ntt each time, Pjh can be estimated easily:
Pjh=1-(1-P6) Ntt
Lottery P6 is the probability of matching 6 numbers. In the case of the WINFall lottery, P6=1/13,983,816.
The total tickets Ntt each time can be estimated by its samples and their probabilities. The WINFall lottery has 4 samples, matching 6 numbers N6, matching 5 N5, matching 4 N4 and matching 3 N3 respectively. N3 is the largest sample of the WINFall lottery. As far as we have four samples in hand: N6 N5 N4 and N3, we use N3 to calculate the total tickets. Because the more sample are there, the small differences we have (Statistics Accuracy). The Ntt is:
Ntt=N3/P3
P3 is the probability of matching 3 numbers. In the case of lottery WINFall, P3=1/57.
To win is really practical.
However, government should make more money than buyers even following the abave rule.
Comments
According to the calculation by Hao Li in 2006 (should be at MSU that time) (see Hao Li's article at http://www.jofamericanscience.org/journals/am-sci/0201/06-li...):
By knowing the total tickets Ntt each time, Pjh can be estimated easily: Pjh=1-(1-P6) Ntt Lottery P6 is the probability of matching 6 numbers. In the case of the WINFall lottery, P6=1/13,983,816. The total tickets Ntt each time can be estimated by its samples and their probabilities. The WINFall lottery has 4 samples, matching 6 numbers N6, matching 5 N5, matching 4 N4 and matching 3 N3 respectively. N3 is the largest sample of the WINFall lottery. As far as we have four samples in hand: N6 N5 N4 and N3, we use N3 to calculate the total tickets. Because the more sample are there, the small differences we have (Statistics Accuracy). The Ntt is: Ntt=N3/P3 P3 is the probability of matching 3 numbers. In the case of lottery WINFall, P3=1/57.
To win is really practical.
However, government should make more money than buyers even following the abave rule.