I think the order of operations is backwards here.
China wouldn’t start a war over semiconductors, but if the supply had already been cut off and internal economic collapse was imminent, it could drive a military response. Something similar to what the oil embargo (arguably) drove Japan to do in 1941.
Chinas primary military advantage is that the one or two million PLA soldiers with AKs don’t require semiconductors to be effective and western powers lack the willpower to engage in conventional warfare.
But they lack a navy sufficient to control the open seas. They can control their territorial waters well enough with their anti-air and anti-naval systems but beyond that they don't have the reach. Basically neither the US nor China can hit each other well enough to make a decisive war so there's no real incentive right now. But I can imagine Xi and company coming up with some nonsensical patriotic reason to get people mad enough to at least embargo the US even if it hurts them more in the long run.
Why would the US ever engage in a conventional war against a global power ever again? There's a reason why the US hasn't adopted a no first use policy for nukes.
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I think the order of operations is backwards here.
China wouldn’t start a war over semiconductors, but if the supply had already been cut off and internal economic collapse was imminent, it could drive a military response. Something similar to what the oil embargo (arguably) drove Japan to do in 1941.
Chinas primary military advantage is that the one or two million PLA soldiers with AKs don’t require semiconductors to be effective and western powers lack the willpower to engage in conventional warfare.
But they lack a navy sufficient to control the open seas. They can control their territorial waters well enough with their anti-air and anti-naval systems but beyond that they don't have the reach. Basically neither the US nor China can hit each other well enough to make a decisive war so there's no real incentive right now. But I can imagine Xi and company coming up with some nonsensical patriotic reason to get people mad enough to at least embargo the US even if it hurts them more in the long run.
Why would the US ever engage in a conventional war against a global power ever again? There's a reason why the US hasn't adopted a no first use policy for nukes.