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Comment on World War 3 to Be Fought over Semiconductors?parent

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In what universe was WW1 predictably stupid. WW1 happened due to a complex series of treaties, nationalism, and many other things.

Nobody thought it would get as bad as it did

In the de-constructive palingenetic perspective some see in its human promoters:

And had not «mere anarchy», as W.B. Yeats put it in 1916, been «loosed upon the world»? To many, the war had seemed the greatest calamity since the fall of Rome. Germany, from fear and ambition, and Austria, from resignation and despair, had willed the war in a way the other belligerents had not. It marked the culmination of the wave of pessimism in German philosophy which was its salient characteristic in the pre-war period. Germanic pessimism, which contrasted sharply with the optimism based upon political change and reform to be found in the United States, Britain, France and even Russia in the decade before 1914, was not the property of the intelligentsia but was to be found at every level of German society, particularly at the top. In the weeks before the outbreak of Armageddon, Bethmann Hollweg's secretary and confident Kurt Riezler made notes of the gloomy relish with which his master steered Germany and Europe into the abyss. July 7 1914: «The Chancellor expects that a war, whatever its outcome, will result in the uprooting of everything that exists. The existing world very antiquated, without ideas». July 27: «Doom greater than human power hanging over Europe and our own people». Bethmann Hollweg had been born in the same year as Freud, and it was as though he personified the "death instinct" the latter coined as the fearful decade ended. Like most educated Germans, he had read Max Nordau's Degeneration, published in 1895, and was familiar with the degenerative theories of the Italian criminologist Cesare Lombroso. War or no war, man was in inevitable decline; civilization was heading for destruction. Such ideas were commonplace in central Europe, preparing the way for the gasp of approbation which greeted Oswald Spengler's Decline of the West, fortuitously timed for publication in 1918 when the predicted suicide had been accomplished.

Paul Johnson, Modern Times.

“One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans.”– Otto von Bismarck (1888)

Coming from the guy that built a pan-European system of alliances with the sole purpose of preventing opposing blocks to form, yeah. A pity the big powers, Germany being one of the first ones, tore Bismarck's system of alliances down.

Not sure the tragedy that happened in the Balkans qualifies as foolish. The local Slavic population was sick of the Austro-Hungary's rule and wanted to kick out the empire they never invited.

Yep, everybody thought the war would be a quick affaire. And an unavoidable at that, so most major powers wanted the war for various reasons.

You just described how the US civil war started too. Expected to be less than 3 months initially.

Everyone ever was supposed to be home before Christmas, right?

I imagine nobody starts a war if they think it will be long.

We've spent the last 70 years ignoring complex treaties. There were treaties that suggested we fight for Ukraine's sovereignty, for example.

The entire moral of the story is "maybe don't back Poland." (WW2)

WW1 was stupid but inevitable, in that if it didn't happen then it would have happened soon after. A lesson all had to learn.

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