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I mean I have a clinical problem with overthinking (I am diagnosed with OCD) and I'm not disputing at all there are cases where overthinking is irrational and unproductive. I'm just pointing out that just like there are risks of overthinking, there are also risks of underthinking. And I usually see advises about how to prevent overthinking, and not underthinking. If I were to make a perfectly rational choice, I'd risk overthinking more than the opposite. So, although balance is ideal, if a balance is not possible (you don't have enough data to make a perfect decision) then I think, rationally speaking, you want to err slightly on the side of overthinking.

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